Gimnasia L.P. 0–2 Defensa Y Justicia

Gimnasia L.P.

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Defensa Y Justicia

N. Fernández 68' (pen)

S. Solari 64'

2/6/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 2Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.39%

×Draw27%

Defensa Y Justicia33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnasia L.P.Expected goals in this matchDefensa Y Justicia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.16

Gimnasia L.P.

1.28

Defensa Y Justicia

1.16

Gimnasia L.P. creates 10% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

1.07

creates per match

1.20

1.11

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.

1.07

Defensa Y Justicia

1.20

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.

1.11

Defensa Y Justicia

1.49

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.24scores less

Defensa Y Justicia-0.43scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Defensa Y Justicia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw

67%

Gimnasia L.P. or Defensa Y Justicia

73%

Draw or Defensa Y Justicia

61%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

17%

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

72%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

37%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

14%

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

69%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

32%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

54%

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

Defensa Y Justicia away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.49 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.07 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.28

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.20 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

39%

level

27%

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

33%

Gimnasia L.P. at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gimnasia L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

N. Colombo

Defensa Y Justicia · D

7.7

Match Events

42'

Tomás Cardona

46'

S. Solari← T. Escalante

46'

J. López← D. Cáceres

60'

Matías Melluso

61'

E. Mosquera← F. Versaci

62'

A. Steimbach← B. Domínguez

64'

S. Solari↳ K. Gutiérrez

68'

N. FernándezPenalty

73'

T. Muro← M. Comba

73'

F. Torres← A. Sosa

73'

L. Contín← E. Ramírez

74'

J. Malatini← T. Cardona

77'

F. Soldano← R. Castillo

82'

J. Miritello← N. Fernández

86'

Alexis Soto

90'

Kevin Gutiérrez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GimnasiaDefensa

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots7

7Corners3

10Fouls19

Shots

13Total Shots7

4On Target2

7Off Target2

2Blocked3

6Inside Box5

7Outside Box2

Passing

49%Possession51%

264Total Passes302

189Accurate Passes194

72%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls19

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3