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Gimnasia L.P. vs Defensa Y Justicia — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Defensa Y Justicia
Defensa Y Justicia
T. Muro 78'
7/2/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.39%
×Draw27%
Defensa Y Justicia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia L.P.
1.28
Defensa Y Justicia
1.16

Gimnasia L.P. creates 10% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.07
Defensa Y Justicia
1.20

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.11
Defensa Y Justicia
1.49

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.24scores less
Defensa Y Justicia-0.43scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Defensa Y Justicia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw
67%
Gimnasia L.P. or Defensa Y Justicia
73%
Draw or Defensa Y Justicia
61%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
17%
Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
72%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
37%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
14%
Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals
69%
Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals
32%
Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
54%
Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

Defensa Y Justicia away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.49 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.07 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.28

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.20 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more
39%
level
27%
Defensa Y Justicia scores more
33%

Gimnasia L.P. at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gimnasia L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
R. ReyGimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P. · G
8.2

Match Events

18'
Gabriel Alanis
21'
Agustín Cardozo
53'
Juan Gabriel Rodríguez
53'
Tomás Cardona
61'
T. Muro← L. Chávez
62'
M. Miranda← E. Ramírez
66'
A. Soto← G. Alanís
77'
A. Fontana← N. Fernández
78'
T. Muro
81'
Brahian Alemán
84'
T. Galván← G. Togni
88'
M. Insaurralde← A. Cardozo
89'
R. Cecchini← R. Sosa
90+4'
Emanuel Cecchini

Possession

38%Gimnasia

Shots

13Gimnasia

Pass accuracy

46%Gimnasia

Statistics

GimnasiaDefensa
Overview
38%Possession62%
13Total Shots14
10Corners7
13Fouls15
Shots
13Total Shots14
4On Target6
5Off Target2
4Blocked6
7Inside Box7
6Outside Box7
Passing
38%Possession62%
259Total Passes441
176Accurate Passes347
68%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls15
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides4

Liga Profesional Argentina: Gimnasia L.P. 1–0 Defensa Y Justicia

Gimnasia L.P. beat Defensa Y Justicia 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on July 2, 2022.

Goals: T. Muro (78').

Defensa Y Justicia controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo in La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.