Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 Gimnasia L.P.

Defensa Y Justicia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gimnasia L.P.

N. Fernández 53'

S. Lucero 42' (OG)

5/18/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Defensa Y Justicia38%

×Draw29%

Gimnasia L.P.33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensa Y JusticiaExpected goals in this matchGimnasia L.P.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.07

Defensa Y Justicia

1.17

Gimnasia L.P.

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 25 away

1.09

creates per match

0.91

1.23

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Defensa Y Justicia

1.09

Gimnasia L.P.

0.91

allows per match

Defensa Y Justicia

1.23

Gimnasia L.P.

1.25

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Defensa Y Justicia-0.20scores less

Gimnasia L.P.-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensa Y Justicia ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Defensa Y Justicia or draw

67%

Defensa Y Justicia or Gimnasia L.P.

71%

Draw or Gimnasia L.P.

62%

Winning margin

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

16%

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

69%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

33%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

11%

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

66%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

29%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

54%

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensa Y Justicia at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 9 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.25 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.09 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.91 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

38%

level

29%

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

33%

Defensa Y Justicia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Defensa Y Justicia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

A. Soto

Defensa Y Justicia · D

7.6

Match Events

26'

Leonardo Morales

32'

Nicolás Tripichio

42'

S. LuceroOwn goal

44'

Pablo De Blasis

46'

R. Bogarín← G. Alanís

53'

N. Fernández↳ F. Echevarría

64'

J. López← K. López

79'

D. Zalazar← L. Castro

79'

Y. Rodríguez← B. Domínguez

80'

E. Ramírez← M. Abaldo

85'

A. Molinas← F. Echevarría

87'

Yonathan Rodríguez

88'

Alexis Soto

88'

E. Burgos← S. Lucero

89'

F. Troyansky← P. De Blasis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DefensaGimnasia

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots14

1.19Expected Goals (xG)1.68

3Corners7

9Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots14

3On Target3

8Off Target9

5Blocked2

7Inside Box9

9Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

429Total Passes323

335Accurate Passes234

78%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.62Goals Prevented-0.62

Discipline

9Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3