Defensa Y Justicia 3–2 Gimnasia L.P.

Defensa Y Justicia

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Gimnasia L.P.

N. Tripichio 70'

C. Rotondi 45'

M. Merentiel 5'

A. Frías 90+1' (OG)

C. Tarragona 37'

2/25/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 4Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Defensa Y Justicia38%

×Draw29%

Gimnasia L.P.33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensa Y JusticiaExpected goals in this matchGimnasia L.P.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.06

Defensa Y Justicia

1.16

Gimnasia L.P.

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 26 away

1.09

creates per match

0.90

1.23

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Defensa Y Justicia

1.09

Gimnasia L.P.

0.90

allows per match

Defensa Y Justicia

1.23

Gimnasia L.P.

1.22

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Defensa Y Justicia-0.20scores less

Gimnasia L.P.-0.09on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensa Y Justicia ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Defensa Y Justicia or draw

67%

Defensa Y Justicia or Gimnasia L.P.

71%

Draw or Gimnasia L.P.

62%

Winning margin

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

16%

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

69%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

32%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

11%

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

65%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

29%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

54%

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensa Y Justicia at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 9 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.22 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.09 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.16

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.90 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

38%

level

29%

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

33%

Defensa Y Justicia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Defensa Y Justicia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Merentiel

Defensa Y Justicia · F

8.7

Match Events

5'

M. Merentiel↳ W. Bou

15'

Walter Bou

37'

C. Tarragona↳ J. Carbonero

42'

Guillermo Fratta

45'

C. Rotondi↳ G. Hachen

46'

49'

52'

59'

68'

L. Chávez← A. Cardozo

70'

N. Tripichio↳ M. Merentiel

77'

H. Silva← F. Pizzini

84'

A. Fontana← M. Merentiel

84'

G. Alanís← C. Rotondi

86'

Brahian Alemán

87'

Alexis Soto

90+1'

A. FríasOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DefensaGimnasia

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots18

4Corners6

14Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots18

4On Target5

7Off Target8

5Blocked5

10Inside Box9

6Outside Box9

Passing

56%Possession44%

476Total Passes345

407Accurate Passes275

86%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides5

Match Recap: Defensa Y Justicia vs Gimnasia L.P.

Defensa Y Justicia beat Gimnasia L.P. 3-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on February 25, 2022.

Goals: M. Merentiel (5'), C. Tarragona (37'), C. Rotondi (45'), N. Tripichio (70'), A. Frías (90+1' o.g.).

Defensa Y Justicia controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello in Florencio Varela, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Defensa Y Justicia vs Gimnasia L.P. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Defensa Y Justicia vs Gimnasia L.P.