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Defensa Y Justicia vs Gimnasia L.P. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Defensa Y Justicia
Defensa Y Justicia
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
R. Contreras 90+5'
W. Bou 87'
F. Pizzini 68'
M. Pérez 66'
G. Fratta 47'
8/1/2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Defensa Y Justicia38%
×Draw29%
Gimnasia L.P.33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensa Y Justicia
1.16
Gimnasia L.P.
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 26 away

creates per match

Defensa Y Justicia
1.09
Gimnasia L.P.
0.90

allows per match

Defensa Y Justicia
1.23
Gimnasia L.P.
1.22

finishing

Defensa Y Justicia-0.20scores less
Gimnasia L.P.-0.09on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensa Y Justicia ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Defensa Y Justicia or draw
67%
Defensa Y Justicia or Gimnasia L.P.
71%
Draw or Gimnasia L.P.
62%

Winning margin

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+
16%
Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals
69%
Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals
32%
Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals
11%
Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
65%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
29%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)
54%
Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensa Y Justicia at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 9 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.22 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.09 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.16

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.90 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Defensa Y Justicia scores more
38%
level
29%
Gimnasia L.P. scores more
33%

Defensa Y Justicia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Defensa Y Justicia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
M. PérezGimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P. · M
7.7

Match Events

17'
Tomás Cardona
46'
F. Pizzini← M. Merentiel
46'
A. Domínguez← L. Contín
47'
G. Fratta↳ F. Gerometta
48'
Guillermo Fratta
54'
L. Barrios← H. Fernández
66'
M. Pérez
67'
G. Hachen← R. Loaiza
68'
F. Pizzini↳ L. Barrios
69'
N. Leyes← H. Mancilla
72'
B. Alemán← M. Pérez
80'
Adonis Frías
82'
R. Contreras← C. Rotondi
82'
L. Escalante← M. Rodríguez
82'
R. Cecchini← L. Rodríguez
82'
E. Ramírez← M. Insaurralde
87'
W. Bou↳ G. Hachen
90+1'
Rodrigo Contreras
90+5'
R. Contreras↳ K. Gutiérrez

Possession

63%Defensa

Shots

12Defensa

Pass accuracy

54%Defensa

Statistics

DefensaGimnasia
Overview
63%Possession37%
12Total Shots6
7Corners5
12Fouls19
Shots
12Total Shots6
5On Target4
4Off Target2
3Blocked0
7Inside Box3
5Outside Box3
Passing
63%Possession37%
495Total Passes290
401Accurate Passes199
81%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls19
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Defensa Y Justicia vs Gimnasia L.P.

Defensa Y Justicia beat Gimnasia L.P. 3-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 1, 2021.

Goals: G. Fratta (47'), M. Pérez (66'), F. Pizzini (68'), W. Bou (87'), R. Contreras (90+5').

Defensa Y Justicia controlled possession (63%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello in Florencio Varela, Provincia de Buenos Aires.