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GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF — Superettan 2026

GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
10/6/2024SuperettanSuperettan · Round 26NP3 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

GIF Sundsvall34%
×Draw25%
Degerfors IF41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GIF Sundsvall
1.30
Degerfors IF
1.46

Degerfors IF creates 12% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 60 away

creates per match

GIF Sundsvall
1.47
Degerfors IF
1.48

allows per match

GIF Sundsvall
1.45
Degerfors IF
1.13

finishing

GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par
Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GIF Sundsvall ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

GIF Sundsvall or draw
59%
GIF Sundsvall or Degerfors IF
75%
Draw or Degerfors IF
66%

Winning margin

GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
15%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
73%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
37%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
14%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
77%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
43%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
45%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GIF Sundsvall at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.45 · 83 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.13 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.47 + Degerfors IF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

Degerfors IF attack 1.48 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

GIF Sundsvall scores more
34%
level
25%
Degerfors IF scores more
41%

Degerfors IF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: GIF Sundsvall 1–2 Degerfors IF

Degerfors IF beat GIF Sundsvall 2-1 in Superettan on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at NP3 Arena in Sundsvall.