Degerfors IF 2–0 GIF Sundsvall: Result & Stats

Degerfors IF

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

GIF Sundsvall

4/6/2024

Superettan · Round 2Stora Valla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Degerfors IF50%

×Draw24%

GIF Sundsvall26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Degerfors IFExpected goals in this matchGIF Sundsvall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.14

Degerfors IF

1.69

GIF Sundsvall

1.14

Degerfors IF creates 48% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 82 away

1.93

creates per match

1.11

1.17

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Degerfors IF

1.93

GIF Sundsvall

1.11

allows per match

Degerfors IF

1.17

GIF Sundsvall

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par

GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

GIF Sundsvall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw

74%

Degerfors IF or GIF Sundsvall

76%

Draw or GIF Sundsvall

50%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

27%

GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

82%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

50%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

24%

GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals

68%

GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals

32%

GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

66%

GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.17 · 60 matches

GIF Sundsvall away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.93 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.69

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.11 + Degerfors IF defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Degerfors IF scores more

50%

level

24%

GIF Sundsvall scores more

26%

Degerfors IF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff