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GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF — Allsvenskan 2026

GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
5/9/2022AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 7NP3 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

GIF Sundsvall45%
×Draw23%
Degerfors IF32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GIF Sundsvall
1.73
Degerfors IF
1.43

GIF Sundsvall creates 21% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 65 away

creates per match

GIF Sundsvall
1.40
Degerfors IF
1.08

allows per match

GIF Sundsvall
1.78
Degerfors IF
2.06

finishing

GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par
Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GIF Sundsvall ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

GIF Sundsvall or draw
68%
GIF Sundsvall or Degerfors IF
77%
Draw or Degerfors IF
55%

Winning margin

GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
24%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
82%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
52%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
25%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
76%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
42%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
58%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GIF Sundsvall at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.06 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.40 + Degerfors IF defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.73

Degerfors IF attack 1.08 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

GIF Sundsvall scores more
45%
level
23%
Degerfors IF scores more
32%

GIF Sundsvall at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "GIF Sundsvall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF

Degerfors IF beat GIF Sundsvall 3-2 in Allsvenskan on May 9, 2022.

The match was played at NP3 Arena in Sundsvall.