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Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall — Allsvenskan 2026

Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
8/27/2022AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 20Stora Valla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Degerfors IF43%
×Draw26%
GIF Sundsvall31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Degerfors IF
1.48
GIF Sundsvall
1.22

Degerfors IF creates 21% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 45 away

creates per match

Degerfors IF
1.06
GIF Sundsvall
0.96

allows per match

Degerfors IF
1.48
GIF Sundsvall
1.89

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par
GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

GIF Sundsvall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw
69%
Degerfors IF or GIF Sundsvall
74%
Draw or GIF Sundsvall
57%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+
21%
GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals
77%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
43%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
19%
GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
70%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
34%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
58%
GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.48 · 67 matches

GIF Sundsvall away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.06 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

GIF Sundsvall attack 0.96 + Degerfors IF defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Degerfors IF scores more
43%
level
26%
GIF Sundsvall scores more
31%

Degerfors IF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Degerfors IF 3–1 GIF Sundsvall

Degerfors IF beat GIF Sundsvall 3-1 in Allsvenskan on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stora Valla in Degerfors.