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Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall — Svenska Cupen 2019

Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
2/27/2022Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Stora Valla B-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Degerfors IF67%
×Draw19%
GIF Sundsvall14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Degerfors IF
2.21
GIF Sundsvall
0.91

Degerfors IF creates 143% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

creates per match

Degerfors IF
2.25
GIF Sundsvall
1.18

allows per match

Degerfors IF
0.63
GIF Sundsvall
2.18

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par
GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

GIF Sundsvall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw
86%
Degerfors IF or GIF Sundsvall
81%
Draw or GIF Sundsvall
33%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+
43%
GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals
89%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
65%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
38%
GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
60%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
23%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
82%
GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

GIF Sundsvall away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 2.25 + GIF Sundsvall defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.21

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.18 + Degerfors IF defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Degerfors IF scores more
67%
level
19%
GIF Sundsvall scores more
14%

Degerfors IF at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Degerfors IF 4–1 GIF Sundsvall

Degerfors IF beat GIF Sundsvall 4-1 in Svenska Cupen on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stora Valla B-plan in Degerfors.