Frosinone 2–2 Empoli: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Empoli

I. Koutsoupias 60'

F. Ghedjemis 45'

S. Shpendi 54', 18'

2/20/2026

Serie B · Round 26Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Frosinone47%

×Draw24%

Empoli29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchEmpoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.27

Frosinone

1.70

Empoli

1.27

Frosinone creates 34% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.76

creates per match

1.27

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Frosinone

1.76

Empoli

1.27

allows per match

Frosinone

1.27

Empoli

1.64

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Frosinone+0.24scores more

Empoli-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Empoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

71%

Frosinone or Empoli

76%

Draw or Empoli

53%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

25%

Empoli wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

82%

Frosinone 2+ goals

51%

Frosinone 3+ goals

24%

Empoli 1+ goals

72%

Empoli 2+ goals

36%

Empoli 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

62%

Empoli (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.27 · 9 matches

Empoli away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.76 + Empoli defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.70

Empoli attack 1.27 + Frosinone defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Frosinone scores more

47%

level

24%

Empoli scores more

29%

Frosinone at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

S. Shpendi

Empoli · F

9.3

Match Events

18'

S. Shpendi↳ T. Ebuehi

22'

Luca Magnino

26'

Salvatore Elia

45+1'

Marco Curto

45'

F. Ghedjemis↳ I. Monterisi

54'

S. Shpendi↳ S. Elia

56'

J. Gelli← I. Monterisi

60'

I. Koutsoupias↳ A. Raimondo

67'

M. Nasti← D. Fila

67'

A. Candela← T. Ebuehi

70'

B. L. Kone← M. Cichella

70'

M. Zilli← A. Raimondo

73'

Nosa Edward Obaretin

77'

J. Ceesay← S. Elia

78'

N. Haas← L. Ignacchiti

79'

Jacopo Gelli

82'

F. Gelli← I. Koutsoupias

82'

A. Fiori← G. Kvernadze

87'

E. Saporiti← S. Shpendi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneEmpoli

Overview

63%Possession37%

28Total Shots13

1.79Expected Goals (xG)2.65

6Corners3

6Fouls18

Shots

28Total Shots13

8On Target5

11Off Target4

9Blocked4

18Inside Box11

10Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

414Total Passes248

321Accurate Passes161

78%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

-0.52Goals Prevented-0.52

Discipline

6Fouls18

1Yellow Cards4

4Offsides4

Serie B: Frosinone 2–2 Empoli

Frosinone and Empoli drew 2-2 in Serie B on February 20, 2026.

Goals: S. Shpendi (18', 54'), F. Ghedjemis (45'), I. Koutsoupias (60').

Frosinone controlled possession (63%) and registered 28 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.

Frosinone vs Empoli — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Frosinone 2–2 Empoli