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Frosinone vs Empoli — Serie B 2018

Frosinone
Frosinone
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Empoli
Empoli
A. La Mantia 57'
S. Moreo 5'
9/26/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 1Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Frosinone47%
×Draw24%
Empoli29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frosinone
1.70
Empoli
1.27

Frosinone creates 34% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Frosinone
1.76
Empoli
1.27

allows per match

Frosinone
1.27
Empoli
1.64

finishing

Frosinone+0.24scores more
Empoli-0.12scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Empoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw
71%
Frosinone or Empoli
76%
Draw or Empoli
53%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+
25%
Empoli wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals
82%
Frosinone 2+ goals
51%
Frosinone 3+ goals
24%
Empoli 1+ goals
72%
Empoli 2+ goals
36%
Empoli 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)
62%
Empoli (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.27 · 9 matches

Empoli away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.76 + Empoli defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.70

Empoli attack 1.27 + Frosinone defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Frosinone scores more
47%
level
24%
Empoli scores more
29%

Frosinone at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. BrignoliEmpoliEmpoli · G
8.2

Match Events

5'
S. Moreo
21'
Dimitris Nikolaou
29'
Grigoris Kastanos
57'
A. La Mantia↳ A. Terzić
61'
F. Dionisi← M. Ardemagni
70'
A. Novakovich← M. Rohdén
70'
A. Tribuzzi← F. Zampano
77'
S. Damiani← S. Ricci
77'
N. Bajrami← A. La Mantia
86'
K. Piscopo← S. Moreo
90+2'
T. Fantacci← F. Bandinelli

Possession

57%Frosinone

Shots

19Frosinone

Pass accuracy

52%Frosinone

Statistics

FrosinoneEmpoli
Overview
57%Possession43%
19Total Shots11
7Corners1
16Fouls16
Shots
19Total Shots11
6On Target3
9Off Target6
4Blocked2
13Inside Box8
6Outside Box3
Passing
57%Possession43%
504Total Passes392
438Accurate Passes310
87%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
16Fouls16
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides3

Serie B: Frosinone 0–2 Empoli

Empoli beat Frosinone 2-0 in Serie B on September 26, 2020.

Goals: S. Moreo (5'), A. La Mantia (57').

Frosinone controlled possession (57%) and registered 19 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.