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Empoli vs Frosinone — Serie B 2018

Empoli
Empoli
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Frosinone
Frosinone
M. Nasti 24'
A. Raimondo 16'
12/27/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 18Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Empoli50%
×Draw23%
Frosinone27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli
1.89
Frosinone
1.33

Empoli creates 42% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Empoli
1.82
Frosinone
1.83

allows per match

Empoli
0.84
Frosinone
1.95

finishing

Empoli-0.27scores less
Frosinone+0.34scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Frosinone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Empoli or draw
73%
Empoli or Frosinone
77%
Draw or Frosinone
50%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+
28%
Frosinone wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals
85%
Empoli 2+ goals
56%
Empoli 3+ goals
29%
Frosinone 1+ goals
74%
Frosinone 2+ goals
38%
Frosinone 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)
65%
Frosinone (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.84 · 11 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.95 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.82 + Frosinone defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.89

Frosinone attack 1.83 + Empoli defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Empoli scores more
50%
level
23%
Frosinone scores more
27%

Empoli at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34
G. GuarinoEmpoliEmpoli · D
7.7

Match Events

14'
Gerard Yepes
16'
A. Raimondo↳ R. Marchizza
24'
M. Nasti↳ R. Ilie
46'
D. Degli Innocenti← G. Yepes
52'
Giorgi Kvernadze
55'
Giorgio Cittadini
66'
L. Ignacchiti← A. Ghion
66'
I. Konate← M. Nasti
74'
N. Haas← R. Ilie
75'
F. Grosso← F. Gelli
75'
N. Corrado← R. Marchizza
76'
Giacomo Calò
78'
M. Curto← L. Tosto
83'
M. Zilli← A. Raimondo
89'
E. Masciangelo← G. Kvernadze
89'
K. Barcella← I. Koutsoupias

Possession

45%Empoli

Shots

13Empoli

Pass accuracy

49%Empoli

Statistics

EmpoliFrosinone
Overview
45%Possession55%
13Total Shots15
3Corners1
12Fouls15
Shots
13Total Shots15
6On Target3
6Off Target9
1Blocked3
8Inside Box11
5Outside Box4
Passing
45%Possession55%
318Total Passes389
229Accurate Passes295
72%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls15
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides3

Serie B: Empoli 1–1 Frosinone

Empoli and Frosinone drew 1-1 in Serie B on December 27, 2025.

Goals: A. Raimondo (16'), M. Nasti (24').

Frosinone controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Empoli.