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Empoli vs Frosinone — Serie B 2018

Empoli
Empoli
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Frosinone
Frosinone
A. Ciciretti 90' (pen), 29'
7/10/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 33Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Empoli48%
×Draw23%
Frosinone29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli
1.83
Frosinone
1.38

Empoli creates 33% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

creates per match

Empoli
1.72
Frosinone
1.83

allows per match

Empoli
0.92
Frosinone
1.95

finishing

Empoli-0.26scores less
Frosinone+0.34scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Frosinone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Empoli or draw
71%
Empoli or Frosinone
77%
Draw or Frosinone
52%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+
26%
Frosinone wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals
84%
Empoli 2+ goals
54%
Empoli 3+ goals
28%
Frosinone 1+ goals
75%
Frosinone 2+ goals
40%
Frosinone 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)
62%
Frosinone (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.95 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.72 + Frosinone defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.83

Frosinone attack 1.83 + Empoli defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Empoli scores more
48%
level
23%
Frosinone scores more
29%

Empoli at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
Amato CicirettiEmpoliEmpoli · F
8.2

Match Events

29'
A. Ciciretti↳ F. Bandinelli
33'
N. Haas
46'
C. Ciano← A. Novakovich
52'
J. Balkovec← L. Antonelli
53'
D. Frattesi← S. Żurkowski
58'
L. Henderson
58'
R. Maiello← M. Gori
61'
N. Bajrami
67'
A. Beghetto← S. DElia
67'
N. Citro← F. Dionisi
69'
L. Krajnc← M. Capuano
75'
N. Haas
75'
N. Haas
80'
S. Ricci← F. Bandinelli
80'
S. Moreo← L. Mancuso
89'
A. Beghetto
90'
A. CicirettiPenalty

Possession

49%Empoli

Shots

13Empoli

Pass accuracy

49%Empoli

Statistics

EmpoliFrosinone
Overview
49%Possession51%
13Total Shots19
1Corners9
14Fouls16
Shots
13Total Shots19
4On Target2
7Off Target13
2Blocked4
7Inside Box15
6Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
378Total Passes369
281Accurate Passes279
74%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls16
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
3Offsides2

Serie B: Empoli 2–0 Frosinone

Empoli beat Frosinone 2-0 in Serie B on July 10, 2020.

Goals: A. Ciciretti (29', 90' pen).

Frosinone controlled possession (51%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Empoli.