Empoli 3–1 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Empoli

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Frosinone

N. Bajrami 61'

S. Żurkowski 42'

L. Mancuso 34'

G. Kastanos 30'

1/30/2021

Serie B · Round 20Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Empoli48%

×Draw23%

Frosinone29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmpoliExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.38

Empoli

1.83

Frosinone

1.38

Empoli creates 33% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

1.72

creates per match

1.83

0.92

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Empoli

1.72

Frosinone

1.83

allows per match

Empoli

0.92

Frosinone

1.95

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Empoli-0.26scores less

Frosinone+0.34scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Empoli or draw

71%

Empoli or Frosinone

77%

Draw or Frosinone

52%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+

26%

Frosinone wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals

84%

Empoli 2+ goals

54%

Empoli 3+ goals

28%

Frosinone 1+ goals

75%

Frosinone 2+ goals

40%

Frosinone 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)

62%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.95 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.72 + Frosinone defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.83

Frosinone attack 1.83 + Empoli defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Empoli scores more

48%

level

23%

Frosinone scores more

29%

Empoli at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

N. Bajrami

Empoli · M

8.2

Match Events

30'

G. Kastanos↳ A. Novakovich

34'

L. Mancuso↳ N. Bajrami

42'

S. Żurkowski↳ S. Sabelli

57'

S. Moreo← S. Żurkowski

61'

N. Bajrami↳ S. Ricci

67'

R. Maiello← M. Carraro

67'

P. Parzyszek← A. Novakovich

73'

Ryder Matos← A. La Mantia

73'

S. Damiani← N. Bajrami

73'

M. Olivieri← L. Mancuso

73'

M. Gori← G. Kastanos

73'

M. Vitale← A. Tribuzzi

77'

S. D'Elia← A. Salvi

81'

R. Pirrello← S. Sabelli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmpoliFrosinone

Overview

31%Possession69%

10Total Shots21

7Corners7

9Fouls5

Shots

10Total Shots21

5On Target5

2Off Target11

3Blocked5

9Inside Box14

1Outside Box7

Passing

31%Possession69%

286Total Passes612

220Accurate Passes550

77%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls5