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Frosinone vs Empoli — Serie B 2018

Frosinone
Frosinone
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Empoli
Empoli
F. Zampano 77'
A. Novakovich 48'
F. Dionisi 33'
A. Beghetto 2'
11/30/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 14Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Frosinone50%
×Draw23%
Empoli26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frosinone
1.78
Empoli
1.23

Frosinone creates 45% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

creates per match

Frosinone
1.92
Empoli
1.27

allows per match

Frosinone
1.19
Empoli
1.64

finishing

Frosinone+0.41scores more
Empoli-0.12scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Empoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw
74%
Frosinone or Empoli
77%
Draw or Empoli
50%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+
28%
Empoli wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals
83%
Frosinone 2+ goals
53%
Frosinone 3+ goals
26%
Empoli 1+ goals
71%
Empoli 2+ goals
35%
Empoli 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)
65%
Empoli (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.19 · 15 matches

Empoli away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.92 + Empoli defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.78

Empoli attack 1.27 + Frosinone defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Frosinone scores more
50%
level
23%
Empoli scores more
26%

Frosinone at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
A. NovakovichFrosinoneFrosinone · F
8.7

Match Events

2'
A. Beghetto↳ A. Novakovich
20'
Mirko Gori
29'
Luca Paganini
33'
F. Dionisi↳ A. Novakovich
46'
K. Laribi← F. Bandinelli
48'
A. Novakovich↳ M. Rohdén
56'
Dimitris Nikolaou
62'
D. Merola← A. La Gumina
63'
N. Haas← M. Gori
68'
N. Bajrami← D. Frattesi
74'
Andrea Beghetto
74'
F. Zampano← M. Rohdén
77'
F. Zampano↳ N. Brighenti
84'
M. Trotta← F. Dionisi

Possession

40%Frosinone

Shots

14Frosinone

Pass accuracy

49%Frosinone

Statistics

FrosinoneEmpoli
Overview
40%Possession60%
14Total Shots7
2Corners7
14Fouls15
Shots
14Total Shots7
8On Target1
4Off Target4
2Blocked2
12Inside Box3
2Outside Box4
Passing
40%Possession60%
370Total Passes545
305Accurate Passes474
82%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls15
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Frosinone vs Empoli

Frosinone beat Empoli 4-0 in Serie B on November 30, 2019.

Goals: A. Beghetto (2'), F. Dionisi (33'), A. Novakovich (48'), F. Zampano (77').

Empoli controlled possession (60%) and registered 7 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.