Frosinone 3–3 Empoli: Result & Stats | Serie A

Frosinone

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Empoli

D. Ciofani 63', 54' (pen)

M. Silvestre 8' (OG)

S. Uçan 79'

M. Silvestre 48'

M. Zajc 32'

10/21/2018

Serie A · Round 9Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Frosinone41%

×Draw27%

Empoli33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchEmpoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.19

Frosinone

1.36

Empoli

1.19

Frosinone creates 14% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.16

creates per match

0.87

1.50

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Frosinone

1.16

Empoli

0.87

allows per match

Frosinone

1.50

Empoli

1.56

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Frosinone+0.11scores more

Empoli-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Empoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

67%

Frosinone or Empoli

73%

Draw or Empoli

59%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

19%

Empoli wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

74%

Frosinone 2+ goals

39%

Frosinone 3+ goals

16%

Empoli 1+ goals

70%

Empoli 2+ goals

33%

Empoli 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

55%

Empoli (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.50 · 11 matches

Empoli away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.56 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.16 + Empoli defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.36

Empoli attack 0.87 + Frosinone defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Frosinone scores more

41%

level

27%

Empoli scores more

33%

Frosinone at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

D. Ciofani

Frosinone · F

7.9

Match Events

6'

Miha Zajc

8'

M. SilvestreOwn goal

32'

M. Zajc↳ L. Antonelli

48'

M. Silvestre↳ A. La Gumina

54'

D. CiofaniPenalty

63'

D. Ciofani↳ J. Campbell

65'

R. Vloet← J. Campbell

66'

I. Bennacer← L. Capezzi

66'

S. Uçan← M. Zajc

69'

Domenico Maietta

78'

M. Pasqual← L. Antonelli

79'

S. Uçan

81'

M. Gori← R. Maiello

85'

A. Pinamonti← D. Ciofani

86'

Ismaël Bennacer

88'

Cristian Molinaro

90'

Camillo Ciano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneEmpoli

Overview

40%Possession60%

7Total Shots20

6Corners8

15Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots20

4On Target10

1Off Target5

2Blocked5

4Inside Box9

3Outside Box11

Passing

40%Possession60%

299Total Passes464

227Accurate Passes397

76%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides4