Flamengo 3–1 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats

Flamengo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

LDU de Quito

Fernando Uribe 81'

Gabriel Barbosa 69'

Éverton Ribeiro 9'

Cristian Martínez 90' (pen)

3/14/2019

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estádio do Maracanã

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Flamengo70%

×Draw20%

LDU de Quito11%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlamengoExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.62

Flamengo

1.99

LDU de Quito

0.62

Flamengo creates 221% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

1.98

creates per match

0.70

0.54

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Flamengo

1.98

LDU de Quito

0.70

allows per match

Flamengo

0.54

LDU de Quito

2.01

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Flamengo-0.41scores less

LDU de Quito-0.03on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Flamengo or draw

89%

Flamengo or LDU de Quito

80%

Draw or LDU de Quito

30%

Winning margin

Flamengo wins by 2+

44%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Flamengo 1+ goals

86%

Flamengo 2+ goals

59%

Flamengo 3+ goals

32%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

46%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

13%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Flamengo (draw refunded)

87%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.54 · 7 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.01 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo attack 1.98 + LDU de Quito defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.99

LDU de Quito attack 0.70 + Flamengo defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Flamengo scores more

70%

level

20%

LDU de Quito scores more

11%

Flamengo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Éverton Ribeiro

Flamengo · M

8.9

Match Events

9'

Éverton Ribeiro↳ Diego

15'

Rodrigo Aguirre

45'

Jefferson IntriagoMissed penalty

51'

Jefferson Intriago

53'

Gustavo Cuéllar

61'

Julio Angulo← José Ayoví

69'

Gabriel Barbosa↳ Bruno Henrique

77'

Jacob Murillo← Jefferson Intriago

81'

Fernando Uribe↳ Willian Arão

81'

Fernando Uribe← Bruno Henrique

81'

Cristian Martínez← Rodrigo Aguirre

86'

Giorgian De Arrascaeta← Gustavo Cuéllar

88'

Miguel Trauco← Renê

90'

Cristian MartínezPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FlamengoLDU

Overview

69%Possession31%

14Total Shots5

4Corners1

14Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots5

6On Target3

5Off Target1

3Blocked1

12Inside Box2

2Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

634Total Passes278

553Accurate Passes210

87%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0