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FC Cartagena vs Almeria — Segunda División 2018

FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Almeria
Almeria
G. Valles 35'
L. Suárez 65'
Sergio Arribas 24'
11/23/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 16Estadio Municipal Cartagonova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

FC Cartagena37%
×Draw27%
Almeria36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cartagena
1.22
Almeria
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 133 away

creates per match

FC Cartagena
1.18
Almeria
1.27

allows per match

FC Cartagena
1.16
Almeria
1.26

finishing

FC Cartagena+0.00on par
Almeria+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cartagena ↓

Almeria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Cartagena or draw
64%
FC Cartagena or Almeria
73%
Draw or Almeria
63%

Winning margin

FC Cartagena wins by 2+
16%
Almeria wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Cartagena 1+ goals
70%
FC Cartagena 2+ goals
34%
FC Cartagena 3+ goals
12%
Almeria 1+ goals
70%
Almeria 2+ goals
34%
Almeria 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Cartagena (draw refunded)
50%
Almeria (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cartagena at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.16 · 105 matches

Almeria away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.26 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cartagena attack 1.18 + Almeria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Almeria attack 1.27 + FC Cartagena defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC Cartagena scores more
37%
level
27%
Almeria scores more
36%

FC Cartagena at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Sergio ArribasAlmeriaAlmeria · F
8.5

Match Events

6'
Edgar González
24'
Sergio Arribas↳ Álex Centelles
35'
G. Valles↳ Cedric Teguia
45'
Dani EscricheGoal cancelled
54'
Damián Musto
54'
Mini
60'
Álex Pozo← Arnau Puigmal
60'
Nico Melamed← Léo Baptistão
65'
L. Suárez
70'
Luis Muñoz← Sergio Guerrero
70'
Andy Rodríguez← D. Musto
77'
L. Román← Hugo González
82'
Alfredo Ortuño← Cedric Teguia
83'
Kaiky← Marc Pubill
90'
Gui← L. Suárez
90'
M. Milovanović← Sergio Arribas

Possession

35%FC

Shots

7FC

Pass accuracy

46%FC

Statistics

FCAlmeria
Overview
35%Possession65%
7Total Shots17
5Corners3
23Fouls12
Shots
7Total Shots17
4On Target3
2Off Target12
1Blocked2
5Inside Box11
2Outside Box6
Passing
35%Possession65%
262Total Passes485
187Accurate Passes410
71%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
23Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: FC Cartagena vs Almeria

Almeria beat FC Cartagena 2-1 in Segunda División on November 23, 2024.

Goals: Sergio Arribas (24'), G. Valles (35'), L. Suárez (65').

Almeria controlled possession (65%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Cartagonova in Cartagena.