Almeria 0–1 FC Cartagena: Result & Stats

Almeria

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Cartagena

G. Silva 39'

1/2/2022

Segunda División · Round 22Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Almeria54%

×Draw24%

FC Cartagena21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlmeriaExpected goals in this matchFC Cartagena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.95

Almeria

1.67

FC Cartagena

0.95

Almeria creates 76% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 105 away

1.77

creates per match

0.95

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Almeria

1.77

FC Cartagena

0.95

allows per match

Almeria

0.95

FC Cartagena

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almeria+0.00on par

FC Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almeria ↓

FC Cartagena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Almeria or draw

79%

Almeria or FC Cartagena

76%

Draw or FC Cartagena

46%

Winning margin

Almeria wins by 2+

29%

FC Cartagena wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Almeria 1+ goals

81%

Almeria 2+ goals

50%

Almeria 3+ goals

23%

FC Cartagena 1+ goals

61%

FC Cartagena 2+ goals

25%

FC Cartagena 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Almeria (draw refunded)

72%

FC Cartagena (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almeria at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.95 · 132 matches

FC Cartagena away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.57 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almeria attack 1.77 + FC Cartagena defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.67

FC Cartagena attack 0.95 + Almeria defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Almeria scores more

54%

level

24%

FC Cartagena scores more

21%

Almeria at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Almeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

G. Silva

FC Cartagena · D

8.6

Match Events

16'

Sergio Akieme← José Carlos Lazo

35'

Richard Boateng

36'

Gastón Silva

39'

G. Silva↳ Álex Gallar

40'

Berto Cayarga

46'

Raul Caballero← Álex Centelles

46'

M. Dauda← R. Boateng

50'

Pedro Alcalá

59'

Neskes← Berto Cayarga

64'

L. Ramazani← Arnau Puigmal

65'

Pablo De Blasis

68'

Alfredo Ortuño← Rubén Castro

79'

Carlos Gilbert← Javi Robles

86'

Xavi Pons← M. Dauda

86'

Nacho Gil← Álex Gallar

90+3'

Nacho Gil

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlmeriaFC

Overview

45%Possession55%

17Total Shots10

4Corners3

14Fouls17

Shots

17Total Shots10

2On Target1

10Off Target3

5Blocked6

10Inside Box8

7Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

394Total Passes493

298Accurate Passes391

76%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls17

0Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

2Offsides5