Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Cartagena vs Almeria — Segunda División 2018

FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Almeria
Almeria
P. De Blasis 82' (pen)
R. Castro 47', 41'
L. Ramazani 54' (pen)
U. Sadiq 45+1'
5/18/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 40Estadio Municipal Cartagonova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

FC Cartagena37%
×Draw27%
Almeria36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cartagena
1.22
Almeria
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 133 away

creates per match

FC Cartagena
1.18
Almeria
1.27

allows per match

FC Cartagena
1.16
Almeria
1.26

finishing

FC Cartagena+0.00on par
Almeria+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cartagena ↓

Almeria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Cartagena or draw
64%
FC Cartagena or Almeria
73%
Draw or Almeria
63%

Winning margin

FC Cartagena wins by 2+
16%
Almeria wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Cartagena 1+ goals
70%
FC Cartagena 2+ goals
34%
FC Cartagena 3+ goals
12%
Almeria 1+ goals
70%
Almeria 2+ goals
34%
Almeria 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Cartagena (draw refunded)
50%
Almeria (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cartagena at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.16 · 105 matches

Almeria away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.26 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cartagena attack 1.18 + Almeria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Almeria attack 1.27 + FC Cartagena defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC Cartagena scores more
37%
level
27%
Almeria scores more
36%

FC Cartagena at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Rubén CastroFC CartagenaFC Cartagena · F
8.3

Match Events

21'
A. Gallar← I. Gil
21'
J. Delmas
25'
Jose Angel
36'
S. Costa
41'
R. Castro↳ P. De Blasis
45+1'
U. Sadiq
47'
R. Castro
54'
L. RamazaniPenalty
59'
I. Fernandes← I. Balliu
59'
A. Bunuel← J. Cuenca
66'
R. Navas
71'
L. Robertone← J. Carvalho
73'
Jose Angel← R. Azeez
73'
A. Cayarga← Elady
76'
L. Ramazani
81'
G. Makaridze
82'
P. De BlasisPenalty
83'
L. Ramazani← B. Rodriguez
83'
J. Corpas← J. Corpas
83'
P. De Blasis
87'
G. Aburjania← P. Claveria
87'
R. Castro← Antonito
90+2'
Elady

Possession

37%FC

Shots

7FC

Pass accuracy

46%FC

Statistics

FCAlmeria
Overview
37%Possession63%
7Total Shots7
7Corners2
16Fouls13
Shots
7Total Shots7
5On Target3
2Off Target2
0Blocked2
7Inside Box4
0Outside Box3
Passing
37%Possession63%
267Total Passes472
193Accurate Passes392
72%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls13
5Yellow Cards3
4Offsides4

Match Recap: FC Cartagena vs Almeria

FC Cartagena beat Almeria 3-2 in Segunda División on May 18, 2021.

Goals: R. Castro (41', 47'), U. Sadiq (45+1'), L. Ramazani (54' pen), P. De Blasis (82' pen).

Almeria controlled possession (63%) and registered 7 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Cartagonova in Cartagena.