Almeria 2–1 FC Cartagena: Result & Stats

Almeria

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC Cartagena

L. Suárez 54'

Léo Baptistão 9'

Álex Millán 85' (pen)

4/13/2025

Segunda División · Round 35UD Almería Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Almeria54%

×Draw24%

FC Cartagena21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlmeriaExpected goals in this matchFC Cartagena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.95

Almeria

1.68

FC Cartagena

0.95

Almeria creates 77% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 105 away

1.79

creates per match

0.95

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Almeria

1.79

FC Cartagena

0.95

allows per match

Almeria

0.95

FC Cartagena

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almeria+0.00on par

FC Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almeria ↓

FC Cartagena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Almeria or draw

79%

Almeria or FC Cartagena

76%

Draw or FC Cartagena

46%

Winning margin

Almeria wins by 2+

30%

FC Cartagena wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Almeria 1+ goals

81%

Almeria 2+ goals

50%

Almeria 3+ goals

24%

FC Cartagena 1+ goals

61%

FC Cartagena 2+ goals

25%

FC Cartagena 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Almeria (draw refunded)

72%

FC Cartagena (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almeria at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.95 · 130 matches

FC Cartagena away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.57 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almeria attack 1.79 + FC Cartagena defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.68

FC Cartagena attack 0.95 + Almeria defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Almeria scores more

54%

level

24%

FC Cartagena scores more

21%

Almeria at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Almeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

Léo Baptistão

Almeria · M

8.9

Match Events

9'

Léo Baptistão↳ Álex Centelles

39'

Jorge Moreno

45'

Nicolás Melamed

54'

L. Suárez↳ Léo Baptistão

60'

José Machín← Óscar Clemente

60'

Álex Millán← Alfredo Ortuño

60'

D. Luna← Andy Rodríguez

69'

L. Robertone← Gonzalo Melero

69'

Arnau Puigmal← Léo Baptistão

69'

R. Núñez← A. Vukčević

78'

M. Perović← Nico Melamed

79'

Dani Escriche← S. El Jebari

81'

Marc Pubill

85'

Álex MillánPenalty

86'

Gui← Sergio Arribas

86'

Silvi← D. Lopy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlmeriaFC

Overview

59%Possession41%

28Total Shots6

10Corners1

13Fouls8

Shots

28Total Shots6

7On Target3

13Off Target2

8Blocked1

19Inside Box3

9Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

488Total Passes345

431Accurate Passes268

88%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3