FC Cartagena 1–3 Almeria: Result & Stats

FC Cartagena

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Almeria

Luna 49'

L. Ramazani 61', 35'

U. Sadiq 19'

8/16/2021

Segunda División · Round 1Estadio Municipal Cartagonova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

FC Cartagena37%

×Draw27%

Almeria36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC CartagenaExpected goals in this matchAlmeria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.21

FC Cartagena

1.22

Almeria

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 133 away

1.18

creates per match

1.27

1.16

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

FC Cartagena

1.18

Almeria

1.27

allows per match

FC Cartagena

1.16

Almeria

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Cartagena+0.00on par

Almeria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cartagena ↓

Almeria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

FC Cartagena or draw

64%

FC Cartagena or Almeria

73%

Draw or Almeria

63%

Winning margin

FC Cartagena wins by 2+

16%

Almeria wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC Cartagena 1+ goals

70%

FC Cartagena 2+ goals

34%

FC Cartagena 3+ goals

12%

Almeria 1+ goals

70%

Almeria 2+ goals

34%

Almeria 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Cartagena (draw refunded)

50%

Almeria (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cartagena at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.16 · 105 matches

Almeria away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.26 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cartagena attack 1.18 + Almeria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Almeria attack 1.27 + FC Cartagena defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC Cartagena scores more

37%

level

27%

Almeria scores more

36%

FC Cartagena at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

L. Ramazani

Almeria · F

8.6

Match Events

13'

David Andújar

18'

Aitor Buñuel

19'

U. Sadiq↳ José Carlos Lazo

35'

L. Ramazani

46'

Álex Gallar← Y. Bodiger

49'

Luna↳ Álex Gallar

61'

L. Ramazani

64'

Umar Sadiq

71'

César de la Hoz← Samú Costa

73'

Alfredo Ortuño← Nacho Gil

73'

Neskes← R. Boateng

81'

A. Kawaya← Tejera

81'

Clavería← Berto Cayarga

81'

Portillo← José Carlos Lazo

81'

Javi Robles← L. Robertone

90+1'

Andy Kawaya

90+2'

A. Appiah← Curro Sánchez

90+2'

Arnau Puigmal← L. Ramazani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCAlmeria

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots20

6Corners3

17Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots20

4On Target9

3Off Target7

3Blocked4

7Inside Box13

3Outside Box7

Passing

54%Possession46%

363Total Passes318

275Accurate Passes234

76%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

5Offsides2