Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot — Ligue 2 2018

Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
M. Adeline 81'
K. Diawara 78'
K. Bamba 51'
3/7/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 26Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Estac Troyes48%
×Draw27%
Clermont Foot25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estac Troyes
1.42
Clermont Foot
0.96

Estac Troyes creates 48% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 98 away

creates per match

Estac Troyes
1.68
Clermont Foot
0.99

allows per match

Estac Troyes
0.93
Clermont Foot
1.16

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.00on par
Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

Clermont Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw
75%
Estac Troyes or Clermont Foot
73%
Draw or Clermont Foot
52%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+
23%
Clermont Foot wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals
76%
Estac Troyes 2+ goals
41%
Estac Troyes 3+ goals
17%
Clermont Foot 1+ goals
62%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
25%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)
65%
Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.93 · 99 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 1.68 + Clermont Foot defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.42

Clermont Foot attack 0.99 + Estac Troyes defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Estac Troyes scores more
48%
level
27%
Clermont Foot scores more
25%

Estac Troyes at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
K. DiawaraEstac TroyesEstac Troyes · M
8.2

Match Events

43'
Allan Ackra
46'
A. Camblan← E. Cantero
51'
K. Bamba
57'
Sankhoun Diawara
66'
I. Boura← H. Gambor
71'
R. Ripart← M. Detourbet
71'
M. Guindo← F. Diedhiou
71'
I. Fakili← K. Bamba
73'
Abdellah Baallal
78'
K. Diawara
81'
M. Adeline
83'
E. H. Kone← V. Nsimba
85'
M. El Idrissy← K. Diawara
85'
A. Ouzenadji← L. Maronnier
88'
A. Hunou← A. Ackra

Possession

58%Estac

Shots

13Estac

Pass accuracy

51%Estac

Statistics

EstacClermont
Overview
58%Possession42%
13Total Shots4
6Corners1
19Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots4
5On Target2
4Off Target2
4Blocked0
11Inside Box2
2Outside Box2
Passing
58%Possession42%
484Total Passes355
417Accurate Passes288
86%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
19Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot

Estac Troyes beat Clermont Foot 2-1 in Ligue 2 on March 7, 2026.

Goals: K. Bamba (51'), K. Diawara (78'), M. Adeline (81').

Estac Troyes controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stade de l'Aube in Troyes.