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Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes — Ligue 2 2018

Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes
N. de Préville 59'
M. Diop 41'
4/18/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 31Stade Gabriel-Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Clermont Foot37%
×Draw29%
Estac Troyes34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clermont Foot
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 101 away

creates per match

Clermont Foot
1.31
Estac Troyes
1.16

allows per match

Clermont Foot
1.03
Estac Troyes
0.96

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par
Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Estac Troyes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw
66%
Clermont Foot or Estac Troyes
71%
Draw or Estac Troyes
63%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+
15%
Estac Troyes wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals
68%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
32%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
11%
Estac Troyes 1+ goals
66%
Estac Troyes 2+ goals
30%
Estac Troyes 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
52%
Estac Troyes (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.31 + Estac Troyes defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.14

Estac Troyes attack 1.16 + Clermont Foot defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Clermont Foot scores more
37%
level
29%
Estac Troyes scores more
34%

Clermont Foot at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
N. LemaîtreEstac TroyesEstac Troyes · G
8.0

Match Events

41'
M. Diop↳ C. Irié
46'
O. Diop← K. Bamba
59'
N. de Préville↳ I. Boura
63'
J. Gastien← Y. Magnin
63'
Y. Bellache← H. Saivet
70'
Yoan Koré
70'
M. El Idrissy← N. de Préville
73'
A. N'Daw← A. Ackra
73'
F. Diédhiou← M. Bassouamina
75'
Houboulang Mendes
79'
M. Detourbet← R. Saïd
86'
Cyriaque Irié
88'
M. Adeline← C. Irié

Possession

69%Clermont

Shots

16Clermont

Pass accuracy

53%Clermont

Statistics

ClermontEstac
Overview
69%Possession31%
16Total Shots14
6Corners1
11Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots14
5On Target4
4Off Target8
7Blocked2
11Inside Box11
5Outside Box3
Passing
69%Possession31%
604Total Passes279
534Accurate Passes214
88%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Ligue 2: Clermont Foot 0–2 Estac Troyes

Estac Troyes beat Clermont Foot 2-0 in Ligue 2 on April 18, 2025.

Goals: M. Diop (41'), N. de Préville (59').

Clermont Foot controlled possession (69%) and registered 16 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied in Clermont-Ferrand.