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Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes — Ligue 2 2018

Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes
8/15/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade Gabriel Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Clermont Foot37%
×Draw29%
Estac Troyes34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clermont Foot
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 101 away

creates per match

Clermont Foot
1.31
Estac Troyes
1.16

allows per match

Clermont Foot
1.03
Estac Troyes
0.96

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par
Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Estac Troyes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw
66%
Clermont Foot or Estac Troyes
71%
Draw or Estac Troyes
63%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+
15%
Estac Troyes wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals
68%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
32%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
11%
Estac Troyes 1+ goals
66%
Estac Troyes 2+ goals
30%
Estac Troyes 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
52%
Estac Troyes (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.31 + Estac Troyes defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.14

Estac Troyes attack 1.16 + Clermont Foot defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Clermont Foot scores more
37%
level
29%
Estac Troyes scores more
34%

Clermont Foot at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
T. GuivarchClermont FootClermont Foot · G
7.9

Match Events

36'
Mathys Detourbet
43'
Alexandre Philiponeau
43'
Ismaël Boura
57'
M. Adeline← A. Phliponeau
64'
Johan Gastien
68'
H. Keita← J. Gastien
68'
L. Socka Bongue← O. Diop
74'
Loic Socka
78'
I. Fakili← K. Bamba
78'
M. Ifnaoui← M. Detourbet
90+2'
Ilhan FakiliGoal cancelled
90+3'
C. O. Konate← A. Hunou
90+3'
A. Nade← M. El Idrissy

Possession

53%Clermont

Shots

4Clermont

Pass accuracy

51%Clermont

Statistics

ClermontEstac
Overview
53%Possession47%
4Total Shots11
3Corners3
12Fouls12
Shots
4Total Shots11
1On Target2
2Off Target8
1Blocked1
2Inside Box6
2Outside Box5
Passing
53%Possession47%
461Total Passes417
392Accurate Passes348
85%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
4Offsides2

Ligue 2: Clermont Foot 0–0 Estac Troyes

Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on August 15, 2025.

Clermont Foot controlled possession (53%) and registered 4 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Clermont-Ferrand.