Estac Troyes 0–2 Clermont Foot: Result & Stats

Estac Troyes

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Clermont Foot

J. Gastien 30'

M. Cham 27'

4/9/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 30Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Estac Troyes24%

×Draw24%

Clermont Foot52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estac TroyesExpected goals in this matchClermont Foot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.71

Estac Troyes

1.08

Clermont Foot

1.71

Clermont Foot creates 58% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

0.62

creates per match

1.45

1.96

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Estac Troyes

0.62

Clermont Foot

1.45

allows per match

Estac Troyes

1.96

Clermont Foot

1.55

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.24scores more

Clermont Foot-0.07on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

Clermont Foot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw

48%

Estac Troyes or Clermont Foot

76%

Draw or Clermont Foot

76%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

9%

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

66%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

29%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

10%

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

82%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

51%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

32%

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.96 · 7 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.55 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 0.62 + Clermont Foot defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.08

Clermont Foot attack 1.45 + Estac Troyes defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Estac Troyes scores more

24%

level

24%

Clermont Foot scores more

52%

Clermont Foot at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

J. Gastien

Clermont Foot · M

8.3

Match Events

20'

Rominigue Kouamé

27'

M. Cham↳ J. Allevinah

30'

J. Gastien↳ E. Rashani

39'

Yoann Salmier

46'

Y. Larouci← P. Yade

46'

X. Chavalerin← L. Agoumé

61'

I. Ugbo← W. Odobert

74'

S. Khaoui← M. Cham

74'

M. Zeffane← J. Allevinah

80'

Y. Magnin← M. Gonalons

80'

A. Maurer← E. Rashani

82'

86'

88'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstacClermont

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots12

0.43Expected Goals (xG)1.32

3Corners2

18Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots12

3On Target4

3Off Target6

3Blocked2

4Inside Box5

5Outside Box7

Passing

43%Possession57%

401Total Passes538

327Accurate Passes460

82%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Ligue 1: Estac Troyes 0–2 Clermont Foot

Clermont Foot beat Estac Troyes 2-0 in Ligue 1 on April 9, 2023.

Goals: M. Cham (27'), J. Gastien (30').

Clermont Foot controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade de l'Aube in Troyes.

Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot — Ligue 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 1: Estac Troyes 0–2 Clermont Foot