Estac Troyes 0–1 Clermont Foot: Result & Stats

Estac Troyes

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Clermont Foot

H. Saivet 23' (pen)

8/23/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Estac Troyes48%

×Draw27%

Clermont Foot25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estac TroyesExpected goals in this matchClermont Foot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.96

Estac Troyes

1.42

Clermont Foot

0.96

Estac Troyes creates 48% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 98 away

1.68

creates per match

0.99

0.93

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Estac Troyes

1.68

Clermont Foot

0.99

allows per match

Estac Troyes

0.93

Clermont Foot

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

Clermont Foot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw

75%

Estac Troyes or Clermont Foot

73%

Draw or Clermont Foot

52%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

23%

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

76%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

41%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

17%

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

62%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

25%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

65%

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.93 · 99 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 1.68 + Clermont Foot defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.42

Clermont Foot attack 0.99 + Estac Troyes defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Estac Troyes scores more

48%

level

27%

Clermont Foot scores more

25%

Estac Troyes at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. N'Diaye

Clermont Foot · G

8.3

Match Events

23'

H. SaivetPenalty

38'

Habib Keita

53'

J. Isala← D. Da Silva

61'

Y. Magnin← Y. Diaby

62'

A. Bruus← M. Hamdi

69'

N. de Préville← M. Diop

69'

R. Ripart← C. Irié

82'

X. Chavalerin← J. Assoumou

83'

I. Traoré← I. Boura

83'

M. Douane← M. Bassouamina

83'

A. Saïd← H. Keïta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstacClermont

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots5

15Corners3

5Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots5

5On Target1

5Off Target3

5Blocked1

10Inside Box3

5Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

440Total Passes540

390Accurate Passes484

89%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3