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Empoli vs Frosinone — Serie A 2026

Empoli
Empoli
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Frosinone
Frosinone
M. Pajač 38'
F. Caputo 20' (pen)
L. Valzania 70'
3/17/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 28Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Empoli43%
×Draw24%
Frosinone33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli
1.59
Frosinone
1.37

Empoli creates 16% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

creates per match

Empoli
1.19
Frosinone
1.48

allows per match

Empoli
1.26
Frosinone
1.99

finishing

Empoli-0.12scores less
Frosinone-0.68scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Frosinone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Empoli or draw
67%
Empoli or Frosinone
76%
Draw or Frosinone
57%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+
21%
Frosinone wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals
80%
Empoli 2+ goals
47%
Empoli 3+ goals
21%
Frosinone 1+ goals
75%
Frosinone 2+ goals
40%
Frosinone 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)
56%
Frosinone (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 14 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.99 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.19 + Frosinone defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.59

Frosinone attack 1.48 + Empoli defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Empoli scores more
43%
level
24%
Frosinone scores more
33%

Empoli at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
M. PajačEmpoliEmpoli · D
7.8

Match Events

20'
F. CaputoPenalty
38'
M. Pajač↳ R. Krunić
46'
L. Valzania← F. Cassata
60'
M. Trotta← R. Chibsah
68'
Luca Valzania
69'
M. Pasqual← M. Pajač
70'
L. Valzania
75'
Edoardo Goldaniga
78'
Manuel Pasqual
78'
A. Acquah← H. Traorè
85'
F. Dionisi← M. Capuano
87'
S. Uçan← Diego Farias
90'
Matías Silvestre
90'
Afriyie Acquah
90'
Bartłomiej Drągowski

Possession

48%Empoli

Shots

13Empoli

Pass accuracy

50%Empoli

Statistics

EmpoliFrosinone
Overview
48%Possession52%
13Total Shots14
2Corners2
16Fouls17
Shots
13Total Shots14
5On Target3
5Off Target9
3Blocked2
8Inside Box8
5Outside Box6
Passing
48%Possession52%
437Total Passes454
349Accurate Passes363
80%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls17
4Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Empoli vs Frosinone

Empoli beat Frosinone 2-1 in Serie A on March 17, 2019.

Goals: F. Caputo (20' pen), M. Pajač (38'), L. Valzania (70').

Frosinone controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Carlo Castellani in Empoli.