Dhamk 2–2 Al-Qadisiyah FC: Result & Stats

Dhamk

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Al-Qadisiyah FC

E. Zelaya 88'

Mansor Hamzi 35'

Walead Al-shangeati 86'

Hassan Alamiri 42'

2/6/2021

Pro League · Round 17Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dhamk25%

×Draw23%

Al-Qadisiyah FC52%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DhamkExpected goals in this matchAl-Qadisiyah FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.83

Dhamk

1.22

Al-Qadisiyah FC

1.83

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

1.18

creates per match

2.37

1.30

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Dhamk

1.18

Al-Qadisiyah FC

2.37

allows per match

Dhamk

1.30

Al-Qadisiyah FC

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dhamk+0.00on par

Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dhamk ↓

Al-Qadisiyah FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dhamk or draw

48%

Dhamk or Al-Qadisiyah FC

77%

Draw or Al-Qadisiyah FC

75%

Winning margin

Dhamk wins by 2+

10%

Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Dhamk 1+ goals

70%

Dhamk 2+ goals

34%

Dhamk 3+ goals

12%

Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals

84%

Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals

54%

Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Dhamk (draw refunded)

33%

Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dhamk at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dhamk attack 1.18 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 2.37 + Dhamk defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dhamk scores more

25%

level

23%

Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more

52%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

D. Antolić

Dhamk · M

8.2

Match Events

35'

Mansor Hamzi↳ Abdulaziz Al Shahrani

38'

Mansour HamziGoal cancelled

42'

Hassan Alamiri↳ S. Ohawuchi

46'

Arif Al-Haydar← Abdulaziz Ali Aseri

56'

Khalifah Aldawsari

62'

Abdulaziz Al-ShahraniGoal cancelled

65'

Walead Al-shangeati← Hussain Hassan Alnattar

67'

Bader Munshi← Abdulaziz Majrashi

72'

Mohmad Atiah← Abdulaziz Al Shahrani

78'

F. Abdi← Hassan Alamiri

81'

Mazen Abusharara

85'

A. Pellegrino← Mansor Hamzi

85'

Mohammed Harzan← Mazen Abu Shararah

86'

Walead Al-shangeati↳ Rhys Williams

88'

E. Zelaya↳ Arif Al-Haydar

90'

Khalifah Aldawsari

90'

Khalifah Aldawsari

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DhamkAl-Qadisiyah

Overview

44%Possession56%

8Total Shots13

2Corners4

14Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots13

2On Target7

5Off Target4

1Blocked2

6Inside Box5

2Outside Box8

Passing

44%Possession56%

298Total Passes396

210Accurate Passes313

70%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1