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Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC — Pro League 2025

Damac
Damac
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
H. Diallo 90+11' (pen)
3/14/2025Pro LeaguePro League · Round 25Dhamak Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Damac25%
×Draw23%
Al-Qadisiyah FC52%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damac
1.22
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.83

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

creates per match

Damac
1.18
Al-Qadisiyah FC
2.37

allows per match

Damac
1.30
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.26

finishing

Damac+0.00on par
Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damac ↓

Al-Qadisiyah FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Damac or draw
48%
Damac or Al-Qadisiyah FC
77%
Draw or Al-Qadisiyah FC
75%

Winning margin

Damac wins by 2+
10%
Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Damac 1+ goals
70%
Damac 2+ goals
34%
Damac 3+ goals
12%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals
84%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals
54%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Damac (draw refunded)
33%
Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damac at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damac attack 1.18 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 2.37 + Damac defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Damac scores more
25%
level
23%
Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more
52%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
A. BedraneDamacDamac · D
7.9

Match Events

21'
Pierre-Emerick AubameyangPenalty cancelled
57'
Abdulaziz Al Othman← Jehad Thikri
67'
Ali Abdullah Hazazi← Mohammed Abu Al Shamat
68'
Faisal Al Subiani← Ayman Fallatah
72'
Meshari Al Nemer← F. Kamano
81'
Julián Quiñones
85'
Saif Rashad← Iker Almena
90+7'
Noor Al-Rashidi
90+10'
Abdulaziz Al-Othman
90+7'
Turki Al-Ammar
90+4'
Nahitan Nández
90+4'
Nahitan NándezPenalty cancelled
90+13'
Abdulrahman Al Obaid← Dhari Al Anazi
90+13'
Sanousi Al Hawsawi← H. Diallo
90+11'
H. DialloPenalty

Possession

40%Damac

Shots

6Damac

Pass accuracy

47%Damac

Statistics

DamacAl-Qadisiyah
Overview
40%Possession60%
6Total Shots14
0Corners8
7Fouls19
Shots
6Total Shots14
1On Target4
2Off Target4
3Blocked6
3Inside Box7
3Outside Box7
Passing
40%Possession60%
375Total Passes532
288Accurate Passes470
77%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
7Fouls19
1Yellow Cards4
6Offsides0

Pro League: Damac 1–0 Al-Qadisiyah FC

Damac beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-0 in Pro League on March 14, 2025.

Goals: H. Diallo (90+11' pen).

Al-Qadisiyah FC controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Dhamak Club Stadium in Khamis Mushait.