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Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC — Pro League 2025

Damac
Damac
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
V. Vada 37'
N. Nandez 35'
4/9/2026Pro LeaguePro League · Round 28Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Damac25%
×Draw23%
Al-Qadisiyah FC52%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damac
1.22
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.83

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

creates per match

Damac
1.18
Al-Qadisiyah FC
2.37

allows per match

Damac
1.30
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.26

finishing

Damac+0.00on par
Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damac ↓

Al-Qadisiyah FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Damac or draw
48%
Damac or Al-Qadisiyah FC
77%
Draw or Al-Qadisiyah FC
75%

Winning margin

Damac wins by 2+
10%
Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Damac 1+ goals
70%
Damac 2+ goals
34%
Damac 3+ goals
12%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals
84%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals
54%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Damac (draw refunded)
33%
Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damac at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damac attack 1.18 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 2.37 + Damac defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Damac scores more
25%
level
23%
Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more
52%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
N. NandezAl-Qadisiyah FCAl-Qadisiyah FC · M
8.2

Match Events

35'
N. Nandez↳ C. Bonsu Baah
37'
V. Vada↳ J. Okita
46'
A. Bedrane← J. Okita
46'
Gabriel Carvalho← T. Al Ammar
64'
Ibrahim Mahnashi
65'
Nahitan Nández
72'
R. Sharahili← A. Al Qahtani
77'
A. Al Salem← Y. Al Shahrani

Possession

31%Damac

Shots

6Damac

Pass accuracy

46%Damac

Statistics

DamacAl-Qadisiyah
Overview
31%Possession69%
6Total Shots16
0.27Expected Goals (xG)1.42
3Corners12
5Fouls7
Shots
6Total Shots16
3On Target7
2Off Target7
1Blocked2
3Inside Box10
3Outside Box6
Passing
31%Possession69%
275Total Passes611
217Accurate Passes557
79%Pass Accuracy91%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
-0.22Goals Prevented-0.22
Discipline
5Fouls7
0Yellow Cards2
4Offsides5

Pro League: Damac 1–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC

Damac and Al-Qadisiyah FC drew 1-1 in Pro League on April 9, 2026.

Goals: N. Nandez (35'), V. Vada (37').

Al-Qadisiyah FC controlled possession (69%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Abha.