Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–1 Damac: Result & Stats

Al-Qadisiyah FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Damac

M. Retegui 45'

V. Vada 4'

12/27/2025

Pro League · Round 11Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC66%

×Draw20%

Damac14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Qadisiyah FCExpected goals in this matchDamac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.82

Al-Qadisiyah FC

2.06

Damac

0.82

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 151% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 35 away

2.35

creates per match

0.89

0.76

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC

2.35

Damac

0.89

allows per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC

0.76

Damac

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par

Damac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qadisiyah FC ↓

Damac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Al-Qadisiyah FC or draw

86%

Al-Qadisiyah FC or Damac

80%

Draw or Damac

34%

Winning margin

Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+

41%

Damac wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals

87%

Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals

61%

Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals

34%

Damac 1+ goals

56%

Damac 2+ goals

20%

Damac 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)

83%

Damac (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qadisiyah FC at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Damac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 2.35 + Damac defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.06

Damac attack 0.89 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more

66%

level

20%

Damac scores more

14%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

M. Abu Al Shamat

Al-Qadisiyah FC · D

7.7

Match Events

4'

V. Vada↳ M. Sylla

45+3'

Valentín Vada

45'

M. Retegui↳ M. Al Juwayr

57'

Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat

68'

J. Medina← A. Al Qahtani

72'

S. Rajab← M. Abu Al Shamat

76'

Morlaye Sylla

79'

Abdul Rahman Al Khaibari

83'

H. Rabea← V. Vada

83'

S. Al Hawsawi← H. Al Ghamdi

86'

Abdelkader Bedrane

86'

A. Al Salem← J. Quinones

90+3'

Kewin

90+6'

Y. Naji← D. Al Anazi

90+6'

K. Al Samiri← R. Sharahili

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-QadisiyahDamac

Overview

70%Possession30%

17Total Shots6

2.01Expected Goals (xG)0.49

18Corners0

14Fouls7

Shots

17Total Shots6

6On Target3

7Off Target2

4Blocked1

15Inside Box4

2Outside Box2

Passing

70%Possession30%

580Total Passes271

515Accurate Passes196

89%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls7

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2