Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–1 Damac: Result & Stats

Al-Qadisiyah FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Damac

P. Aubameyang 88'

J. Quiñones 39'

H. Diallo 90+5'

10/25/2024

Pro League · Round 8Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC66%

×Draw20%

Damac14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Qadisiyah FCExpected goals in this matchDamac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.83

Al-Qadisiyah FC

2.06

Damac

0.83

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 148% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 36 away

2.33

creates per match

0.89

0.78

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC

2.33

Damac

0.89

allows per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC

0.78

Damac

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par

Damac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qadisiyah FC ↓

Damac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Al-Qadisiyah FC or draw

86%

Al-Qadisiyah FC or Damac

80%

Draw or Damac

34%

Winning margin

Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+

41%

Damac wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals

87%

Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals

61%

Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals

34%

Damac 1+ goals

56%

Damac 2+ goals

20%

Damac 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)

82%

Damac (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qadisiyah FC at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

Damac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 2.33 + Damac defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.06

Damac attack 0.89 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more

66%

level

20%

Damac scores more

14%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Ezequiel Fernández

Al-Qadisiyah FC · M

8.5

Match Events

39'

J. Quiñones↳ Iker Almena

50'

Nacho Fernández

56'

Tariq Mohammed

59'

Turki Al Ammar← Abdulaziz Al Othman

70'

Sanousi Al Hawsawi← Ramzi Solan

71'

Abdullah Al Mogren← Ayman Fallatah

71'

Abdullah Al Qahtani← F. Kamano

76'

Ali Abdullah Hazazi← Iker Almena

83'

Meshari Al Nemer← Tariq Abdullah

86'

Ali Hazazi

88'

P. Aubameyang↳ Ezequiel Fernández

90+4'

Mohammed Abu Al Shamat← Cameron Puertas

90+3'

Mohammed Al Shanqiti← P. Aubameyang

90+1'

Abdulrahman Al Obaid← Dhari Al Anazi

90+5'

H. Diallo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-QadisiyahDamac

Overview

55%Possession45%

13Total Shots10

2Corners2

17Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots10

5On Target3

4Off Target7

4Blocked0

9Inside Box5

4Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

475Total Passes400

400Accurate Passes306

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

5Offsides0

Pro League: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–1 Damac

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Damac 2-1 in Pro League on October 25, 2024.

Goals: J. Quiñones (39'), P. Aubameyang (88'), H. Diallo (90+5').

Al-Qadisiyah FC controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Dammam.

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac — Pro League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Pro League: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–1 Damac