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D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido — Primera División 2018

D. La Serena
D. La Serena
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
A. Camargo 75'
2/14/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 3Estadio La Portada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

D. La Serena33%
×Draw26%
Coquimbo Unido41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. La Serena
1.25
Coquimbo Unido
1.41

Coquimbo Unido creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

D. La Serena
1.41
Coquimbo Unido
1.33

allows per match

D. La Serena
1.48
Coquimbo Unido
1.10

finishing

D. La Serena-0.12scores less
Coquimbo Unido-0.33scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

Coquimbo Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw
59%
D. La Serena or Coquimbo Unido
74%
Draw or Coquimbo Unido
67%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+
14%
Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals
71%
D. La Serena 2+ goals
36%
D. La Serena 3+ goals
13%
Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
76%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
41%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)
45%
Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.48 · 7 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.10 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 1.41 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.33 + D. La Serena defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

D. La Serena scores more
33%
level
26%
Coquimbo Unido scores more
41%

Coquimbo Unido at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
M. FernandezCoquimbo UnidoCoquimbo Unido · D
7.9

Match Events

2'
Manuel Fernández
19'
Francisco Salinas
33'
Andrés Zanini
38'
Diego Rubio
60'
A. E. Azocar Machuca← L. Riveros
67'
N. Johansen← L. Pratto
70'
J. Gutierrez← B. Gutierrez
70'
M. Marin← D. Rubio
70'
B. Contreras← J. Vargas
75'
A. Camargo↳ B. Chandia
78'
Yahir SalazarCard upgrade
79'
Yahir Salazar
84'
M. A. Mundaca Barraza← B. Chandia
85'
R. Holgado← G. Vadala
85'
D. Glaby← A. Camargo
86'
R. Delgado← F. Mac Allister
90+2'
Felipe Chamorro

Possession

50%D.

Shots

4D.

Pass accuracy

50%D.

Statistics

D.Coquimbo
Overview
50%Possession50%
4Total Shots9
4Corners2
10Fouls12
Shots
4Total Shots9
0On Target4
2Off Target4
2Blocked1
2Inside Box4
2Outside Box5
Passing
50%Possession50%
311Total Passes309
220Accurate Passes217
71%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls12
3Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0

Primera División: D. La Serena 0–1 Coquimbo Unido

Coquimbo Unido beat D. La Serena 1-0 in Primera División on February 14, 2026.

Goals: A. Camargo (75').

D. La Serena controlled possession (50%) and registered 4 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio La Portada in La Serena.