Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido — Primera División 2018

D. La Serena
D. La Serena
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
F. Chamorro 90' (pen)
S. Gallegos 16'
N. Donadell 90'
C. Waterman 77' (pen)
M. Palavecino 37' (pen)
B. Cabrera 13'
5/31/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 13Estadio La Portada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

D. La Serena33%
×Draw26%
Coquimbo Unido41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. La Serena
1.25
Coquimbo Unido
1.41

Coquimbo Unido creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

D. La Serena
1.41
Coquimbo Unido
1.33

allows per match

D. La Serena
1.48
Coquimbo Unido
1.10

finishing

D. La Serena-0.12scores less
Coquimbo Unido-0.33scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

Coquimbo Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw
59%
D. La Serena or Coquimbo Unido
74%
Draw or Coquimbo Unido
67%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+
14%
Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals
71%
D. La Serena 2+ goals
36%
D. La Serena 3+ goals
13%
Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
76%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
41%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)
45%
Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.48 · 7 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.10 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 1.41 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.33 + D. La Serena defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

D. La Serena scores more
33%
level
26%
Coquimbo Unido scores more
41%

Coquimbo Unido at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. PalavecinoCoquimbo UnidoCoquimbo Unido · M
8.5

Match Events

-5'
Eryin Sanhueza
-5'
Eryin Sanhueza
13'
B. Cabrera↳ M. Palavecino
16'
S. Gallegos↳ J. Rojas
28'
M. Pinto← J. Rojas
37'
M. PalavecinoPenalty
46'
C. Gutierrez← F. Dinamarca
46'
M. Rivera← L. Ovando
58'
N. Ferreyra← J. Vargas
71'
E. Riquelme← B. Chandia
71'
S. Cordero← M. Zepeda
71'
N. Donadell← A. E. Azocar Machuca
77'
C. WatermanPenalty
78'
L. Carreno← G. A. Jara Gonzalez
78'
N. Johansen← C. Waterman
83'
E. Hernandez← M. Palavecino
87'
Diego Sánchez
90+3'
Nicolás Ferreyra
90+5'
Sebastián GallegosPenalty confirmed
90+3'
Manuel Fernández
90+1'
Francisco Salinas
90'
N. Donadell↳ S. Cordero
90'
F. ChamorroPenalty

Possession

65%D.

Shots

10D.

Pass accuracy

55%D.

Statistics

D.Coquimbo
Overview
65%Possession35%
10Total Shots14
5Corners6
8Fouls10
Shots
10Total Shots14
3On Target7
3Off Target6
4Blocked1
6Inside Box9
4Outside Box5
Passing
65%Possession35%
414Total Passes203
350Accurate Passes142
85%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls10
2Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
1Offsides5

Match Recap: D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido

Coquimbo Unido beat D. La Serena 4-2 in Primera División on May 31, 2025.

Goals: B. Cabrera (13'), S. Gallegos (16'), M. Palavecino (37' pen), C. Waterman (77' pen), N. Donadell (90'), F. Chamorro (90' pen).

D. La Serena controlled possession (65%) and registered 10 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio La Portada in La Serena.