Coquimbo Unido 1–1 D. La Serena: Result & Stats

Coquimbo Unido

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

D. La Serena

M. Zepeda 87'

J. Fuentes 78'

2/2/2025

Copa Chile · Group Stage - 2Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Coquimbo Unido49%

×Draw25%

D. La Serena26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coquimbo UnidoExpected goals in this matchD. La Serena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.05

Coquimbo Unido

1.56

D. La Serena

1.05

Coquimbo Unido creates 49% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

1.32

creates per match

1.57

0.53

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido

1.32

D. La Serena

1.57

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido

0.53

D. La Serena

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

D. La Serena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

D. La Serena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw

74%

Coquimbo Unido or D. La Serena

75%

Draw or D. La Serena

51%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

25%

D. La Serena wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

79%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

46%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

21%

D. La Serena 1+ goals

65%

D. La Serena 2+ goals

28%

D. La Serena 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

66%

D. La Serena (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

D. La Serena away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.32 + D. La Serena defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

D. La Serena attack 1.57 + Coquimbo Unido defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more

49%

level

25%

D. La Serena scores more

26%

Coquimbo Unido at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

F. Dinamarca

20'

B. Chandia

46'

L. Ovando← S. Gallegos

51'

S. Cordero

53'

A. Azócar← N. Donadell

53'

M. Zepeda← B. Chandía

54'

E. Moreira

54'

D. Sanchez

58'

S. Diaz

62'

S. Cabrera← A. Camargo

68'

J. Rojas

69'

C. Gutiérrez← F. Dinamarca

69'

J. Ortiz← G. Jara

69'

M. Rivera← S. Díaz

75'

C. Waterman← N. Johansen

78'

80'

83'

83'

87'

90+7'

90+3'

N. Ferreyra← J. Vargas

Coquimbo

D.

12

Cerda

17

⚽

5

2

4

26

▼

Dinamarca

6

▼

Díaz

7

▼

Jara

18

▼

Gallegos

10

▼

9

13

16

3

14

17

2

8

▼

Camargo

10

Palavecin

30

▼

Chandía

22

▼

Donadell

9

▼

Johansen

Manager: E. González

53'▲A. Azócar←▼N. Donadell

53'▲M. Zepeda←▼B. Chandía

62'▲S. Cabrera←▼A. Camargo

75'▲C. Waterman←▼N. Johansen

Coquimbo Unido substitutes

11Azócar5Zepeda28Cabrera18Waterman4Hernández26Soza1Flores20Mundaca24Alvarado

Manager: E. Durán

46'▲L. Ovando←▼S. Gallegos

69'▲C. Gutiérrez←▼F. Dinamarca

69'▲J. Ortiz←▼G. Jara

69'▲M. Rivera←▼S. Díaz

90+3'▲N. Ferreyra←▼J. Vargas

D. La Serena substitutes

22Ovando16Gutiérrez20Ortiz8Rivera3Ferreyra1Sanhueza13Carreño27Dubó23Pinto

Copa Chile: Coquimbo Unido 1–1 D. La Serena

Coquimbo Unido and D. La Serena drew 1-1 in Copa Chile on February 2, 2025.

Goals: J. Fuentes (78'), M. Zepeda (87').

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Coquimbo.

Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena — Copa Chile 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Copa Chile: Coquimbo Unido 1–1 D. La Serena