D. La Serena 2–0 Coquimbo Unido: Result & Stats

D. La Serena

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Coquimbo Unido

J. Vargas 53'

Jhonatan Kauan 44'

4/6/2025

Copa Chile · Group Stage - 5Estadio La Portada de La Serena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

D. La Serena40%

×Draw25%

Coquimbo Unido35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

D. La SerenaExpected goals in this matchCoquimbo Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.36

D. La Serena

1.48

Coquimbo Unido

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 21 away

2.00

creates per match

1.10

1.62

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

D. La Serena

2.00

Coquimbo Unido

1.10

allows per match

D. La Serena

1.62

Coquimbo Unido

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

D. La Serena+0.00on par

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

Coquimbo Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw

65%

D. La Serena or Coquimbo Unido

75%

Draw or Coquimbo Unido

60%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+

19%

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals

77%

D. La Serena 2+ goals

43%

D. La Serena 3+ goals

19%

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

74%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

39%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)

54%

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 2.00 + Coquimbo Unido defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.48

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.10 + D. La Serena defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

D. La Serena scores more

40%

level

25%

Coquimbo Unido scores more

35%

D. La Serena at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "D. La Serena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

15'

15'

26'

39'

40'

44'

46'

B. Chandía← M. Zepeda

49'

Jhonatan Kauan

53'

J. Vargas↳ Jhonatan Kauan

54'

A. Camargo

56'

A. Zanini

66'

M. Pinto← M. Ramírez

70'

E. Moreira← Á. Henríquez

70'

L. Ovando← Jhonatan Kauan

71'

A. Azócar← A. Camargo

79'

M. Palavecino

81'

M. Rivera← J. Vargas

86'

N. Donadell← C. Waterman

90+7'

F. Dinamarca

90+7'

S. Diaz

90+7'

N. Johansen

D.

Coquimbo

13

16

3

17

2

8

▼

Camargo

7

Galani

10

Palavecin

5

▼

Zepeda

18

▼

9

1

5

2

26

6

14

21

▼

Ramírez

18

Gallegos

11

▼

Henríquez

10

⚽

▼

Vargas

29

⚽A

▼

Kauan

Manager: E. Durán

66'▲M. Pinto←▼M. Ramírez

70'▲E. Moreira←▼Á. Henríquez

70'▲L. Ovando←▼Jhonatan Kauan

81'▲M. Rivera←▼J. Vargas

D. La Serena substitutes

23Pinto9Moreira22Ovando8Rivera31Tapia3Ferreyra24Díaz15Villarroel7Jara

Manager: E. González

46'▲B. Chandía←▼M. Zepeda

71'▲A. Azócar←▼A. Camargo

86'▲N. Donadell←▼C. Waterman

Coquimbo Unido substitutes

30Chandía11Azócar22Donadell4Hernández26Soza20Mundaca21Dorador19Flores23Reynero

Copa Chile: D. La Serena 2–0 Coquimbo Unido

D. La Serena beat Coquimbo Unido 2-0 in Copa Chile on April 6, 2025.

Goals: Jhonatan Kauan (44'), J. Vargas (53').

The match was played at Estadio La Portada de La Serena in La Serena.

D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido — Copa Chile 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Copa Chile: D. La Serena 2–0 Coquimbo Unido