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Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena — Primera División 2018

Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
D. La Serena
D. La Serena
F. Salinas 90'
C. Waterman 83' (pen)
A. Zanini 74'
11/22/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 28Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Coquimbo Unido61%
×Draw22%
D. La Serena17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coquimbo Unido
1.86
D. La Serena
0.86

Coquimbo Unido creates 116% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido
1.79
D. La Serena
1.05

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido
0.68
D. La Serena
1.94

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.10scores more
D. La Serena-0.48scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

D. La Serena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw
83%
Coquimbo Unido or D. La Serena
78%
Draw or D. La Serena
39%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
36%
D. La Serena wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
84%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
55%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
28%
D. La Serena 1+ goals
58%
D. La Serena 2+ goals
21%
D. La Serena 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
78%
D. La Serena (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.68 · 9 matches

D. La Serena away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.94 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.79 + D. La Serena defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.86

D. La Serena attack 1.05 + Coquimbo Unido defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more
61%
level
22%
D. La Serena scores more
17%

Coquimbo Unido at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
C. ZavalaCoquimbo UnidoCoquimbo Unido · M
8.2

Match Events

12'
S. Diaz← J. Fuentes
22'
Matías Palavecino
31'
Felipe Chamorro
41'
Sebastián Díaz
46'
S. Cabrera← M. A. Mundaca Barraza
53'
G. A. Jara Gonzalez← J. Vargas
57'
Eryin Sanhueza
58'
C. Waterman← A. Camargo
74'
Andrés Zanini
74'
A. Zanini↳ S. Gallegos
83'
C. WatermanPenalty
84'
B. Chandia← N. Johansen
84'
M. Pinto← M. Rivera
84'
F. Dinamarca← C. Gutierrez
90+3'
A. E. Azocar Machuca← J. Cornejo
90'
F. Salinas↳ J. Cornejo

Possession

57%Coquimbo

Shots

15Coquimbo

Pass accuracy

55%Coquimbo

Statistics

CoquimboD.
Overview
57%Possession43%
15Total Shots10
1.89Expected Goals (xG)1.15
7Corners4
10Fouls13
Shots
15Total Shots10
5On Target4
10Off Target4
0Blocked2
13Inside Box5
2Outside Box5
Passing
57%Possession43%
333Total Passes262
265Accurate Passes172
80%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls13
1Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena

Coquimbo Unido beat D. La Serena 2-1 in Primera División on November 22, 2025.

Goals: A. Zanini (74'), C. Waterman (83' pen), F. Salinas (90').

Coquimbo Unido controlled possession (57%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Coquimbo.