CSA 1–1 Chapecoense-sc: Result & Stats | Serie B

CSA

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Chapecoense-sc

Rodrigo Rodrigues 35'

Pablo 90+3'

6/8/2022

Serie B · Round 11Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

CSA44%

×Draw30%

Chapecoense-sc26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSAExpected goals in this matchChapecoense-sc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.86

CSA

1.21

Chapecoense-sc

0.86

CSA creates 41% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 95 away

1.43

creates per match

0.89

0.84

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

CSA

1.43

Chapecoense-sc

0.89

allows per match

CSA

0.84

Chapecoense-sc

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSA+0.00on par

Chapecoense-sc+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Chapecoense-sc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

CSA or draw

74%

CSA or Chapecoense-sc

70%

Draw or Chapecoense-sc

56%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+

19%

Chapecoense-sc wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals

70%

CSA 2+ goals

34%

CSA 3+ goals

12%

Chapecoense-sc 1+ goals

58%

Chapecoense-sc 2+ goals

21%

Chapecoense-sc 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)

63%

Chapecoense-sc (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.84 · 70 matches

Chapecoense-sc away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.43 + Chapecoense-sc defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Chapecoense-sc attack 0.89 + CSA defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CSA scores more

44%

level

30%

Chapecoense-sc scores more

26%

CSA at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

71

Pablo

Chapecoense-sc · M

7.7

Match Events

35'

Rodrigo Rodrigues↳ Gabriel

44'

Fernando

46'

Giva← Lucas Barcelos

57'

Lima← Marcelo Freitas

57'

Derek← Jonathan

61'

Chrystian← C. Orejuela

67'

Osvaldo

67'

Yann Rolim← Lourenço

67'

Felipe Augusto← Osvaldo

72'

Pablo← Matheus Bianqui

72'

Maranhão← Luizinho

77'

Sassá← Rodrigo Rodrigues

79'

Diego Renan

85'

M. Carne

85'

Igor← Gabriel

88'

Chrystian Barletta

90+2'

Lucao

90+3'

Pablo↳ Léo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CSAChapecoense-sc

Overview

49%Possession51%

7Total Shots9

2Corners4

16Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots9

2On Target3

2Off Target3

3Blocked3

6Inside Box6

1Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

397Total Passes405

330Accurate Passes329

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls16

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0