Chapecoense-sc 1–0 CSA: Result & Stats | Serie B

Chapecoense-sc

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CSA

Perotti 90+2'

9/17/2022

Serie B · Round 30Arena Condá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Chapecoense-sc41%

×Draw30%

CSA29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chapecoense-scExpected goals in this matchCSA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.92

Chapecoense-sc

1.16

CSA

0.92

Chapecoense-sc creates 26% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 67 away

1.22

creates per match

0.88

0.95

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Chapecoense-sc

1.22

CSA

0.88

allows per match

Chapecoense-sc

0.95

CSA

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chapecoense-sc+0.00on par

CSA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chapecoense-sc ↓

CSA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Chapecoense-sc or draw

71%

Chapecoense-sc or CSA

70%

Draw or CSA

59%

Winning margin

Chapecoense-sc wins by 2+

18%

CSA wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chapecoense-sc 1+ goals

69%

Chapecoense-sc 2+ goals

32%

Chapecoense-sc 3+ goals

11%

CSA 1+ goals

60%

CSA 2+ goals

23%

CSA 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chapecoense-sc (draw refunded)

59%

CSA (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chapecoense-sc at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.95 · 96 matches

CSA away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chapecoense-sc attack 1.22 + CSA defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

CSA attack 0.88 + Chapecoense-sc defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chapecoense-sc scores more

41%

level

30%

CSA scores more

29%

Chapecoense-sc at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chapecoense-sc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

Paulo Ricardo

CSA · G

8.0

Match Events

16'

Matheus Bianqui← Betinho

34'

Guilherme Paraíba← Werley

41'

Marcelo Carné

42'

Paulo Ricardo← Giva

46'

Osvaldo← Elton

68'

Derek← Alisson Farias

68'

Felipe Ferreira← Thomas

80'

Luiz Henrique← Lourenço

84'

Jonathan← Chrystian

84'

Claudinho← Ronei

90+7'

Jonathan

90+7'

Rickson

90+2'

Perotti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Chapecoense-scCSA

Overview

64%Possession36%

27Total Shots6

3Corners3

8Fouls10

Shots

27Total Shots6

11On Target2

10Off Target3

6Blocked1

15Inside Box4

12Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

491Total Passes276

406Accurate Passes175

83%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

2Saves10

Discipline

8Fouls10

1Red Cards2