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Chapecoense-sc vs CSA — Serie B 2026

Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense-sc
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CSA
CSA
10/27/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 2Arena Condá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Chapecoense-sc41%
×Draw30%
CSA29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chapecoense-sc
1.16
CSA
0.92

Chapecoense-sc creates 26% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 67 away

creates per match

Chapecoense-sc
1.22
CSA
0.88

allows per match

Chapecoense-sc
0.95
CSA
1.10

finishing

Chapecoense-sc+0.00on par
CSA+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chapecoense-sc ↓

CSA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chapecoense-sc or draw
71%
Chapecoense-sc or CSA
70%
Draw or CSA
59%

Winning margin

Chapecoense-sc wins by 2+
18%
CSA wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chapecoense-sc 1+ goals
69%
Chapecoense-sc 2+ goals
32%
Chapecoense-sc 3+ goals
11%
CSA 1+ goals
60%
CSA 2+ goals
23%
CSA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chapecoense-sc (draw refunded)
59%
CSA (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chapecoense-sc at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.95 · 96 matches

CSA away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chapecoense-sc attack 1.22 + CSA defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

CSA attack 0.88 + Chapecoense-sc defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chapecoense-sc scores more
41%
level
30%
CSA scores more
29%

Chapecoense-sc at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chapecoense-sc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

94
Paulinho MoccelinChapecoense-scChapecoense-sc · M
8.3

Match Events

31'
Allano
45'
Anselmo Ramon
46'
Foguinho← Vinícius
67'
Rone← Allano
67'
Pedro Lucas← Nadson
69'
Rone
78'
Roberto← Aylon
90'
Paulinho Moccelin
90'
Geovane

Possession

53%Chapecoense-sc

Shots

13Chapecoense-sc

Pass accuracy

50%Chapecoense-sc

Statistics

Chapecoense-scCSA
Overview
53%Possession47%
13Total Shots10
4Corners2
11Fouls21
Shots
13Total Shots10
5On Target4
6Off Target6
2Blocked0
7Inside Box6
6Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
539Total Passes472
460Accurate Passes397
85%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls21
2Yellow Cards3
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Chapecoense-sc vs CSA

Chapecoense-sc and CSA drew 0-0 in Serie B on October 27, 2020.

Chapecoense-sc controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Arena Condá in Chapecó, Santa Catarina.