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CSA vs Chapecoense-sc — Serie B 2026

CSA
CSA
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense-sc
Anselmo Ramon 53'
11/10/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 21Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

CSA44%
×Draw30%
Chapecoense-sc26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSA
1.21
Chapecoense-sc
0.86

CSA creates 41% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 95 away

creates per match

CSA
1.43
Chapecoense-sc
0.89

allows per match

CSA
0.84
Chapecoense-sc
1.00

finishing

CSA+0.00on par
Chapecoense-sc+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Chapecoense-sc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CSA or draw
74%
CSA or Chapecoense-sc
70%
Draw or Chapecoense-sc
56%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+
19%
Chapecoense-sc wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals
70%
CSA 2+ goals
34%
CSA 3+ goals
12%
Chapecoense-sc 1+ goals
58%
Chapecoense-sc 2+ goals
21%
Chapecoense-sc 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)
63%
Chapecoense-sc (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.84 · 70 matches

Chapecoense-sc away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.43 + Chapecoense-sc defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Chapecoense-sc attack 0.89 + CSA defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CSA scores more
44%
level
30%
Chapecoense-sc scores more
26%

CSA at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
Luiz OtávioChapecoense-scChapecoense-sc · D
7.9

Match Events

6'
Alan Ruschel
31'
Paulinho Moccelin
53'
Anselmo Ramon↳ Paulinho Moccelin
62'
Rone← Andrigo
62'
Pedro Junior← Pedro Lucas
65'
Matheus Ribeiro← Alan Ruschel
65'
Mike← Aylon
70'
Bilu← Rodrigo Pimpão
71'
Rodrigo Andrade← Nadson
71'
Norberto Neto← Diego Renan
78'
Felipe Gonçalves← Anselmo Ramon
78'
Denner← Paulinho Moccelin
79'
Rone
86'
Luciano Castan
90'
Rodrigo Andrade
90+5'
Alan Santos← Anderson Leite

Possession

59%CSA

Shots

15CSA

Pass accuracy

52%CSA

Statistics

CSAChapecoense-sc
Overview
59%Possession41%
15Total Shots11
5Corners4
18Fouls11
Shots
15Total Shots11
3On Target2
10Off Target6
2Blocked3
4Inside Box6
11Outside Box5
Passing
59%Possession41%
594Total Passes400
518Accurate Passes323
87%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls11
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: CSA vs Chapecoense-sc

Chapecoense-sc beat CSA 1-0 in Serie B on November 10, 2020.

Goals: Anselmo Ramon (53').

CSA controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.