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CSA vs Chapecoense-SC — Serie A 2026

CSA
CSA
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chapecoense-SC
Chapecoense-SC
J. Gómez 90+4'
Alecsandro 40'
9/8/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 18Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

CSA50%
×Draw29%
Chapecoense-SC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSA
1.31
Chapecoense-SC
0.73

CSA creates 79% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 57 away

creates per match

CSA
1.00
Chapecoense-SC
0.56

allows per match

CSA
0.89
Chapecoense-SC
1.61

finishing

CSA+0.00on par
Chapecoense-SC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Chapecoense-SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CSA or draw
79%
CSA or Chapecoense-SC
71%
Draw or Chapecoense-SC
50%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+
24%
Chapecoense-SC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals
73%
CSA 2+ goals
38%
CSA 3+ goals
14%
Chapecoense-SC 1+ goals
52%
Chapecoense-SC 2+ goals
17%
Chapecoense-SC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)
71%
Chapecoense-SC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Chapecoense-SC away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.61 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.00 + Chapecoense-SC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Chapecoense-SC attack 0.56 + CSA defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CSA scores more
50%
level
29%
Chapecoense-SC scores more
21%

CSA at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
J. GómezCSACSA · M
8.5

Match Events

32'
João Vitor
33'
Alecsandro
40'
Alecsandro↳ J. Gómez
45'
Márcio Araújo
55'
Ricardo Bueno← Alecsandro
66'
Augusto Cesar← Aylon
69'
Alisson Safira← H. Bustamante
70'
Márcio Araújo
70'
Márcio Araújo
77'
Gum
81'
Jean Cleber← Naldo
81'
Rafael Pereira← Gustavo Campanharo
82'
Jonatan Gomez
84'
Rafael Pereira
89'
Regis← Maurício Ramos
90+4'
J. Gómez↳ Alisson Safira

Possession

49%CSA

Shots

10CSA

Pass accuracy

51%CSA

Statistics

CSAChapecoense-SC
Overview
49%Possession51%
10Total Shots15
3Corners7
22Fouls14
Shots
10Total Shots15
4On Target3
3Off Target7
3Blocked5
6Inside Box9
4Outside Box6
Passing
49%Possession51%
311Total Passes317
237Accurate Passes230
76%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
22Fouls14
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards2
3Offsides0

Match Recap: CSA vs Chapecoense-SC

CSA beat Chapecoense-SC 2-0 in Serie A on September 8, 2019.

Goals: Alecsandro (40'), J. Gómez (90+4').

Chapecoense-SC controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceio.