Comerciantes Unidos 0–1 Ayacucho FC: Result & Stats

Comerciantes Unidos

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ayacucho FC

E. M. Perez Azambuya 54' (pen)

7/5/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 18Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos43%

×Draw26%

Ayacucho FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Comerciantes UnidosExpected goals in this matchAyacucho FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.18

Comerciantes Unidos

1.44

Ayacucho FC

1.18

Comerciantes Unidos creates 22% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 95 away

1.12

creates per match

1.09

1.26

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos

1.12

Ayacucho FC

1.09

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos

1.26

Ayacucho FC

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

Ayacucho FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw

69%

Comerciantes Unidos or Ayacucho FC

74%

Draw or Ayacucho FC

57%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

21%

Ayacucho FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

76%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

42%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

18%

Ayacucho FC 1+ goals

69%

Ayacucho FC 2+ goals

33%

Ayacucho FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

58%

Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.26 · 66 matches

Ayacucho FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.75 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.12 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ayacucho FC attack 1.09 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

43%

level

26%

Ayacucho FC scores more

31%

Comerciantes Unidos at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Comerciantes Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

E. M. Perez Azambuya

Ayacucho FC · F

8.2

Match Events

18'

39'

40'

43'

46'

52'

Maximiliano PerezPenalty confirmed

54'

E. M. Perez AzambuyaPenalty

61'

Rotceh Aguilar

66'

L. Garcia← M. P. Carpio Ferro

66'

G. E. Alfaro Martinez← P. Mendez

66'

B. Sosa← G. Paredes

80'

Maximiliano Perez

82'

A. Tamariz← D. Caro

82'

J. Villamarin← E. M. Perez Azambuya

82'

J. Tuesta← J. Vilchez

83'

A. Lecaros← B. Portugal

90+9'

Juan LucumíPenalty cancelled

90+3'

J. Ataupillco← K. Barrios

90+5'

A. Yovera← D. Ramirez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ComerciantesAyacucho

Overview

62%Possession38%

7Total Shots13

0.43Expected Goals (xG)2.42

4Corners3

18Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots13

2On Target5

4Off Target5

1Blocked3

4Inside Box5

3Outside Box8

Passing

62%Possession38%

399Total Passes257

322Accurate Passes175

81%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4