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Ayacucho FC vs Comerciantes Unidos — Primera División 2026

Ayacucho FC
Ayacucho FC
AWD
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
F. Caballero 57'
11/8/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 18Estadio Ciudad de Cumana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Ayacucho FC53%
×Draw24%
Comerciantes Unidos23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayacucho FC
1.76
Comerciantes Unidos
1.08

Ayacucho FC creates 63% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 62 away

creates per match

Ayacucho FC
1.50
Comerciantes Unidos
0.89

allows per match

Ayacucho FC
1.28
Comerciantes Unidos
2.02

finishing

Ayacucho FC+0.00on par
Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayacucho FC ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ayacucho FC or draw
77%
Ayacucho FC or Comerciantes Unidos
76%
Draw or Comerciantes Unidos
47%

Winning margin

Ayacucho FC wins by 2+
29%
Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ayacucho FC 1+ goals
83%
Ayacucho FC 2+ goals
52%
Ayacucho FC 3+ goals
26%
Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
66%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
29%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)
70%
Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayacucho FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.28 · 92 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.02 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayacucho FC attack 1.50 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.76

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.89 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ayacucho FC scores more
53%
level
24%
Comerciantes Unidos scores more
23%

Ayacucho FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ayacucho FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

66
Adrián De la CruzAyacucho FCAyacucho FC · M
7.7

Match Events

32'
F. CaballeroGoal Disallowed - handball
33'
P. Izaguirre
45+1'
G. Paredes
45+3'
B. H. Leon Canchanya
52'
J. Marina
57'
F. Caballero
61'
L. Garcia← G. Paredes
62'
L. Garcia
64'
C. A. Correa Flores← J. Vilchez
65'
N. Tecilla
67'
R. Chipao← J. Marina
67'
J. Nunez← J. Parodi
70'
K. Barrios← J. Falconi
79'
E. M. Perez Azambuya← F. Caballero
79'
J. Tuesta← D. Ramirez
79'
A. Tamariz← D. Caro
80'
N. Figueroa← F. Alcedo
80'
Y. Vilchez← W. Guzman
90+4'
L. Garcia

Possession

64%Ayacucho

Shots

14Ayacucho

Pass accuracy

53%Ayacucho

Statistics

AyacuchoComerciantes
Overview
64%Possession36%
14Total Shots7
7Corners3
10Fouls17
Shots
14Total Shots7
4On Target2
5Off Target3
5Blocked2
8Inside Box2
6Outside Box5
Passing
64%Possession36%
347Total Passes202
290Accurate Passes151
84%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls17
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

Ayacucho FC face Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Ayacucho FC hosting Comerciantes Unidos. Match starts November 8, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ayacucho FC host Comerciantes Unidos at Estadio Ciudad de Cumana.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.