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Comerciantes Unidos vs Ayacucho FC — Primera División 2026

Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
FT
0 – 3
Ayacucho FC
Ayacucho FC
V. Rossel 40'
A. Rosell 21'
9/1/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 1Estadio Carlos Olivares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos43%
×Draw26%
Ayacucho FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comerciantes Unidos
1.44
Ayacucho FC
1.18

Comerciantes Unidos creates 22% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 95 away

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.12
Ayacucho FC
1.09

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.26
Ayacucho FC
1.75

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par
Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

Ayacucho FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw
69%
Comerciantes Unidos or Ayacucho FC
74%
Draw or Ayacucho FC
57%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
21%
Ayacucho FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
76%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
42%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
18%
Ayacucho FC 1+ goals
69%
Ayacucho FC 2+ goals
33%
Ayacucho FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
58%
Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.26 · 66 matches

Ayacucho FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.75 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.12 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ayacucho FC attack 1.09 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more
43%
level
26%
Ayacucho FC scores more
31%

Comerciantes Unidos at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Comerciantes Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
A. Rosell
40'
V. Rossel↳ M. Montes

Possession

58%Comerciantes

Shots

9Comerciantes

Pass accuracy

51%Comerciantes

Statistics

ComerciantesAyacucho
Overview
58%Possession42%
9Total Shots9
4Corners1
4Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots9
1On Target5
6Off Target4
2Blocked0
7Inside Box4
2Outside Box5
Passing
58%Possession42%
214Total Passes158
161Accurate Passes113
75%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
4Fouls10
0Red Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Comerciantes Unidos vs Ayacucho FC

Ayacucho FC beat Comerciantes Unidos 3-0 in Primera División on September 1, 2018.

Goals: A. Rosell (21'), V. Rossel (40').

Comerciantes Unidos controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Olivares in Guadalupe.