Ayacucho FC 2–4 Comerciantes Unidos: Result & Stats

Ayacucho FC

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Comerciantes Unidos

P. de la Cruz 86'

D. Espinoza 20'

P. Magallanes 78'

R. Bazán 74'

M. Sen 54', 8'

4/23/2023

Segunda División · Round 2Estadio El Libertador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ayacucho FC42%

×Draw26%

Comerciantes Unidos32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayacucho FCExpected goals in this matchComerciantes Unidos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.23

Ayacucho FC

1.46

Comerciantes Unidos

1.23

Ayacucho FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 51 away

1.30

creates per match

1.20

1.27

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Ayacucho FC

1.30

Comerciantes Unidos

1.20

allows per match

Ayacucho FC

1.27

Comerciantes Unidos

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayacucho FC ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ayacucho FC or draw

68%

Ayacucho FC or Comerciantes Unidos

74%

Draw or Comerciantes Unidos

58%

Winning margin

Ayacucho FC wins by 2+

20%

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ayacucho FC 1+ goals

77%

Ayacucho FC 2+ goals

43%

Ayacucho FC 3+ goals

18%

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

71%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

35%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)

57%

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayacucho FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayacucho FC attack 1.30 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.20 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ayacucho FC scores more

42%

level

26%

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

32%

Ayacucho FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ayacucho FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

8'

13'

20'

42'

46'

J. Vílchez← G. Loayza

46'

P. Magallanes← C. Lasso

46'

P. Peral← R. Salinas

54'

M. Sen

67'

C. Huayhua← J. Bustamante

67'

P. de la Cruz← S. Barboza

70'

R. Bazán← M. Sen

74'

R. Bazán

76'

P. Becerra← K. Paico

78'

L. Rodríguez← M. Pinco

78'

P. Magallanes

79'

J. Vilchez

80'

L. Valverde← O. Cúneo

86'

P. de la Cruz

88'

P. Peral

Ayacucho

Comerciantes

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Oséias de Souza

46'▲J. Vílchez←▼G. Loayza

67'▲C. Huayhua←▼J. Bustamante

67'▲P. de la Cruz←▼S. Barboza

78'▲L. Rodríguez←▼M. Pinco

Ayacucho FC substitutes

VílchezHuayhuaCruzRodríguezMolinaPalominoAllca

Manager: C. Silvestri

46'▲P. Magallanes←▼C. Lasso

46'▲P. Peral←▼R. Salinas

70'▲R. Bazán←▼M. Sen

76'▲P. Becerra←▼K. Paico

80'▲L. Valverde←▼O. Cúneo

Comerciantes Unidos substitutes

MagallanesPeralBazánBecerraValverdeLópezAponzá

Segunda División: Ayacucho FC 2–4 Comerciantes Unidos

Comerciantes Unidos beat Ayacucho FC 4-2 in Segunda División on April 23, 2023.

Goals: M. Sen (8', 54'), D. Espinoza (20'), R. Bazán (74'), P. Magallanes (78'), P. de la Cruz (86').

The match was played at Estadio El Libertador in Ayacucho.

Ayacucho FC vs Comerciantes Unidos — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Segunda División: Ayacucho FC 2–4 Comerciantes Unidos