Comerciantes Unidos 3–1 Ayacucho FC: Result & Stats

Comerciantes Unidos

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ayacucho FC

M. Sen 89'

K. López 55'

C. Lasso 12'

R. Meza 82' (pen)

7/19/2023

Segunda División · Round 15Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos50%

×Draw22%

Ayacucho FC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Comerciantes UnidosExpected goals in this matchAyacucho FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.35

Comerciantes Unidos

1.91

Ayacucho FC

1.35

Comerciantes Unidos creates 41% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 30 away

1.92

creates per match

1.47

1.24

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos

1.92

Ayacucho FC

1.47

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos

1.24

Ayacucho FC

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

Ayacucho FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw

73%

Comerciantes Unidos or Ayacucho FC

78%

Draw or Ayacucho FC

50%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

29%

Ayacucho FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

85%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

57%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

30%

Ayacucho FC 1+ goals

74%

Ayacucho FC 2+ goals

39%

Ayacucho FC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

65%

Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.24 · 49 matches

Ayacucho FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.92 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.91

Ayacucho FC attack 1.47 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

50%

level

22%

Ayacucho FC scores more

27%

Comerciantes Unidos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Comerciantes Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

R. Salinas

12'

C. Lasso

45+1'

C. Lasso

45+1'

P. Magallanes← C. Lasso

50'

R. Vega

55'

K. López

56'

P. Peral← R. Salinas

56'

P. Goyoneche← F. Leguía

64'

F. Gomez

66'

B. Molina← P. de la Cruz

66'

J. Hilario← M. Ríos

72'

J. Cánova← J. Bosmediano

82'

R. MezaPenalty

86'

K. Santamaria

87'

B. Leon

89'

M. Sen

90'

90+2'

R. Vega

Comerciantes

Ayacucho

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: C. Silvestri

45+1'▲P. Magallanes←▼C. Lasso

56'▲P. Peral←▼R. Salinas

56'▲P. Goyoneche←▼F. Leguía

72'▲J. Cánova←▼J. Bosmediano

Comerciantes Unidos substitutes

MagallanesPeralGoyonecheCánovaBecerraAndersonBazán

Manager: S. Castellanos

66'▲B. Molina←▼P. de la Cruz

66'▲J. Hilario←▼M. Ríos

Ayacucho FC substitutes

MolinaHilarioAquinoCorreaAtaupillcoMayta

Match Recap: Comerciantes Unidos vs Ayacucho FC

Comerciantes Unidos beat Ayacucho FC 3-1 in Segunda División on July 19, 2023.

Goals: C. Lasso (12'), K. López (55'), R. Meza (82' pen), M. Sen (89').

The match was played at Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra in Cutervo.

Comerciantes Unidos vs Ayacucho FC — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Comerciantes Unidos vs Ayacucho FC