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Clermont Foot vs Montpellier — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
Preview
16:00
Montpellier
Montpellier
7/25/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
Big match
39%
Clermont Foot
model favours
39%30%31%

Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Clermont Foot39%
×Draw30%
Montpellier31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clermont Foot
1.11
Montpellier
0.95

Clermont Foot creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Clermont Foot
1.22
Montpellier
1.33

allows per match

Clermont Foot
0.56
Montpellier
1.00

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par
Montpellier+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Montpellier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw
69%
Clermont Foot or Montpellier
70%
Draw or Montpellier
61%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+
16%
Montpellier wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals
67%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
30%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
10%
Montpellier 1+ goals
61%
Montpellier 2+ goals
25%
Montpellier 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
56%
Montpellier (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.22 + Montpellier defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Montpellier attack 1.33 + Clermont Foot defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Clermont Foot scores more
39%
level
30%
Montpellier scores more
31%

Clermont Foot at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Foot
WDWW
Montpellier
WWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Clermont Foot face Montpellier (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Clermont Foot hosting Montpellier. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.